{"source":"manifold","id":"tKegyAxOW9aDoac08LNN","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-a-nuclear-explosion-b","title":"Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030","description":"Here is the history of Nuclear Explosions :)\n\nSeptember 2017: The most recent confirmed nuclear test occurred in North Korea. \n\n2006, 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2017: North Korea conducted nuclear tests.\n\n1998: India and Pakistan, non-signatories, last tested nuclear weapons.\n\nJuly 11, 1958: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Bikini Atoll with a yield of 9.3 megatons.\n\nSeptember 19, 1962: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Novaya Zemlya.\n\nAugust 25, 1962: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Novaya Zemlya.\n\nSeptember 31, 1952: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Enewetak Atoll.\n\nOctober 30, 1961: The Soviet thermonuclear bomb, Tsar Bomba, was detonated in a test over Novaya Zemlya island in the Arctic Ocean. Tsar Bomba is the largest nuclear weapon ever set off and produces the most powerful human-made explosion ever recorded.\n\nAugust 6 and 9, 1945: The United States detonated atomic bombs over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. These bombings killed between 129,000 and 226,000 people, most of whom were civilians.\n\nJuly 16, 1945: The world's first nuclear explosion, a plutonium implosion device, was tested at the Alamogordo Bombing Range, located 210 miles south of Los Alamos, New Mexico.\n\nAccording to the Arms Control Association, at least eight countries have carried out a total of 2,056 nuclear tests since 1945. Of those, 507 have been atmospheric explosions, which spread radioactive materials through the atmosphere.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/V4DTNH8%2F13f8c352ff16.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-14T10:47:10.471000Z","end_date":"2030-02-21T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4317.45322107592,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.30331802368164,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.688438,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030","top_outcome_probability":0.688438,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/V4D0NTH8/will-there-be-a-nuclear-explosion-b","chart_24h":[0.688438,0.688438],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"tKegyAxOW9aDoac08LNN","event_id":"tKegyAxOW9aDoac08LNN","slug":"will-there-be-a-nuclear-explosion-b","question":"Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030","group_item_title":null,"description":"Here is the history of Nuclear Explosions :)\n\nSeptember 2017: The most recent confirmed nuclear test occurred in North Korea. \n\n2006, 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2017: North Korea conducted nuclear tests.\n\n1998: India and Pakistan, non-signatories, last tested nuclear weapons.\n\nJuly 11, 1958: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Bikini Atoll with a yield of 9.3 megatons.\n\nSeptember 19, 1962: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Novaya Zemlya.\n\nAugust 25, 1962: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Novaya Zemlya.\n\nSeptember 31, 1952: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Enewetak Atoll.\n\nOctober 30, 1961: The Soviet thermonuclear bomb, Tsar Bomba, was detonated in a test over Novaya Zemlya island in the Arctic Ocean. Tsar Bomba is the largest nuclear weapon ever set off and produces the most powerful human-made explosion ever recorded.\n\nAugust 6 and 9, 1945: The United States detonated atomic bombs over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. These bombings killed between 129,000 and 226,000 people, most of whom were civilians.\n\nJuly 16, 1945: The world's first nuclear explosion, a plutonium implosion device, was tested at the Alamogordo Bombing Range, located 210 miles south of Los Alamos, New Mexico.\n\nAccording to the Arms Control Association, at least eight countries have carried out a total of 2,056 nuclear tests since 1945. Of those, 507 have been atmospheric explosions, which spread radioactive materials through the atmosphere.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/V4DTNH8%2F13f8c352ff16.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.688438,0.311562],"probability":0.688438,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-14T10:47:10.471000Z","end_date":"2030-02-21T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4317.45322107592,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.30331802368164,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/V4D0NTH8/will-there-be-a-nuclear-explosion-b","event_title":"Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030","chart_24h":[0.688438,0.688438]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tKegyAxOW9aDoac08LNN","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:23:06.204532Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030\" — top market at 69% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}