{"source":"manifold","id":"tNUnHVatJtlGccnOESKc","ticker":null,"slug":"will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-6dad798706d5","title":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?","description":"Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.\n\n[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.\n\nWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before the end of 2026?\n\nSame question except:\n\nbefore end of 2024\n\nbefore end of 2025\n\nbefore end of 2027\n\nbefore end of 2028\n\nbefore 2030","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-10T03:41:51.387000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10623.251614310886,"volume_24hr":100.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.86103630065918,"normalized_volume":31.83997344970703,"liquidity":6000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.087529,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.087529,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-29T20:46:25.151396Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T20:46:25.151396Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-6dad798706d5","chart_24h":[0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"tNUnHVatJtlGccnOESKc","event_id":"tNUnHVatJtlGccnOESKc","slug":"will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-6dad798706d5","question":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.\n\n[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.\n\nWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before the end of 2026?\n\nSame question except:\n\nbefore end of 2024\n\nbefore end of 2025\n\nbefore end of 2027\n\nbefore end of 2028\n\nbefore 2030","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.087529,0.912471],"probability":0.087529,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-10T03:41:51.387000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10623.251614310886,"volume_24hr":100.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.86103630065918,"normalized_volume":31.83997344970703,"liquidity":6000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T20:44:29.744195Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T20:44:29.744195Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-6dad798706d5","event_title":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529,0.087529]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tNUnHVatJtlGccnOESKc","as_of":"2026-08-29T21:05:22.444822Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?\" — top market at 9% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}