{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tNUnHVatJtlGccnOESKc","as_of":"2026-10-14T12:45:39.945755Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?\" — 5% as of 2026-10-06 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tNUnHVatJtlGccnOESKc","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-6dad798706d5"},"source":"manifold","id":"tNUnHVatJtlGccnOESKc","ticker":null,"slug":"will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-6dad798706d5","title":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?","description":"Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.\n\n[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.\n\nWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before the end of 2026?\n\nSame question except:\n\nbefore end of 2024\n\nbefore end of 2025\n\nbefore end of 2027\n\nbefore end of 2028\n\nbefore 2030","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-10T03:41:51.387000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25601.01359303269,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.91226577758789,"liquidity":11000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.049013,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.049013,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-6dad798706d5","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"tNUnHVatJtlGccnOESKc","event_id":"tNUnHVatJtlGccnOESKc","slug":"will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-6dad798706d5","question":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.\n\n[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.\n\nWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before the end of 2026?\n\nSame question except:\n\nbefore end of 2024\n\nbefore end of 2025\n\nbefore end of 2027\n\nbefore end of 2028\n\nbefore 2030","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.049013,0.950987],"probability":0.049013,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-10T03:41:51.387000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":25601.01359303269,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.91226577758789,"liquidity":11000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-6dad798706d5","event_title":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?","chart_24h":null}]}