{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tOrfYYkzjFqQDb11SDQD","as_of":"2026-10-24T05:18:19.522774Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by  the end of 2030?\" — 20% as of 2026-10-13 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tOrfYYkzjFqQDb11SDQD","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Nadja_L/will-an-openly-trans-republican-be"},"source":"manifold","id":"tOrfYYkzjFqQDb11SDQD","ticker":null,"slug":"will-an-openly-trans-republican-be","title":"Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by  the end of 2030?","description":"This market resolves YES if an openly trans Republican is elected to a state or federal government position in the 2030 election or earlier. This market resolves NO if that does not happen. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-02T02:27:17.122000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4324.22798713514,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.785341262817383,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.197699,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by  the end of 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.197699,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-13T14:45:13.963381Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-13T14:45:13.963381Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Nadja_L/will-an-openly-trans-republican-be","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"tOrfYYkzjFqQDb11SDQD","event_id":"tOrfYYkzjFqQDb11SDQD","slug":"will-an-openly-trans-republican-be","question":"Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by  the end of 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves YES if an openly trans Republican is elected to a state or federal government position in the 2030 election or earlier. This market resolves NO if that does not happen. ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.197699,0.802301],"probability":0.197699,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-02T02:27:17.122000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":4324.22798713514,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.785341262817383,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-13T14:44:30.826381Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-13T14:44:30.826381Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Nadja_L/will-an-openly-trans-republican-be","event_title":"Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by  the end of 2030?","chart_24h":null}]}