{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tRGa3mEmOL7fjF0Saaif","as_of":"2026-10-13T08:51:47.937700Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)\" — 68% as of 2026-10-06 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tRGa3mEmOL7fjF0Saaif","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/AntonT/will-ukrainian-government-accept-a"},"source":"manifold","id":"tRGa3mEmOL7fjF0Saaif","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ukrainian-government-accept-a","title":"Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)","description":"This market is resolved when a permanent peace treaty is signed between Ukrainian and Russian governments, or the total capitulation of either side.\n\nSep 29, 9:44pm: added capitulation clause.\n\nOct 1, 12:37pm: A temporary ceasefire that lasts over a year without casualties, while Russia still occupies the territories in question will resolve market to YES.\n\n\nClose date updated to 2025-12-23 11:59 pm\n\n\nClose date updated to 2053-12-23 11:59 pm","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-05-19T12:55:17.154000Z","end_date":"2053-12-24T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":38474.85382109762,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.01722717285156,"liquidity":1135.0419856012895,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.67552,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)","top_outcome_probability":0.67552,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AntonT/will-ukrainian-government-accept-a","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"tRGa3mEmOL7fjF0Saaif","event_id":"tRGa3mEmOL7fjF0Saaif","slug":"will-ukrainian-government-accept-a","question":"Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market is resolved when a permanent peace treaty is signed between Ukrainian and Russian governments, or the total capitulation of either side.\n\nSep 29, 9:44pm: added capitulation clause.\n\nOct 1, 12:37pm: A temporary ceasefire that lasts over a year without casualties, while Russia still occupies the territories in question will resolve market to YES.\n\n\nClose date updated to 2025-12-23 11:59 pm\n\n\nClose date updated to 2053-12-23 11:59 pm","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.67552,0.32448],"probability":0.67552,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-05-19T12:55:17.154000Z","end_date":"2053-12-24T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":38474.85382109762,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.01722717285156,"liquidity":1135.0419856012895,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AntonT/will-ukrainian-government-accept-a","event_title":"Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)","chart_24h":null}]}