{"source":"manifold","id":"tacq0refuh","ticker":null,"slug":"will-at-least-one-starship-leave-ea","title":"Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?","description":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/JoshuaWilkes/7fldxp58f4.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-08T00:28:12.466000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18072.1823524497,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.06929397583008,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?","top_outcome_probability":0.01,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-at-least-one-starship-leave-ea","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"tacq0refuh","event_id":"tacq0refuh","slug":"will-at-least-one-starship-leave-ea","question":"Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?","group_item_title":null,"description":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/JoshuaWilkes/7fldxp58f4.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-08T00:28:12.466000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18072.1823524497,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.06929397583008,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T15:46:02.504898Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-at-least-one-starship-leave-ea","event_title":"Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tacq0refuh","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:33:08.582174Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?\" — top market at 1% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}