{"source":"manifold","id":"tck8E23v0IbcuozH1Yst","ticker":null,"slug":"will-humanity-survive-until-2100","title":"Will humanity survive until 2100?","description":"Full question:\n\nHumanity will not go extinct before 2100. At least 1 thousand humans or human descendants (e.g., mind uploads) will be alive in 2100.\n\nOne of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.\n\nResolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F8ns5u3_fgc.png?alt=media&token=bd850c88-2804-423e-957d-904a9f80601a","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-26T00:40:05.210000Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18799.262750015652,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.36007308959961,"liquidity":1135.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.897439,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will humanity survive until 2100?","top_outcome_probability":0.897439,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-humanity-survive-until-2100","chart_24h":[0.897439,0.897439],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"tck8E23v0IbcuozH1Yst","event_id":"tck8E23v0IbcuozH1Yst","slug":"will-humanity-survive-until-2100","question":"Will humanity survive until 2100?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Full question:\n\nHumanity will not go extinct before 2100. At least 1 thousand humans or human descendants (e.g., mind uploads) will be alive in 2100.\n\nOne of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.\n\nResolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F8ns5u3_fgc.png?alt=media&token=bd850c88-2804-423e-957d-904a9f80601a","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.897439,0.102561],"probability":0.897439,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-26T00:40:05.210000Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18799.262750015652,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.36007308959961,"liquidity":1135.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-humanity-survive-until-2100","event_title":"Will humanity survive until 2100?","chart_24h":[0.897439,0.897439]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tck8E23v0IbcuozH1Yst","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:12:42.308271Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will humanity survive until 2100?\" — top market at 90% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}