{"source":"manifold","id":"tncQ6NqutE","ticker":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":"what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","description":"A problem is considered solved if it is deemed solved by a majority consensus of the most expert mathematicians, according to my best impressions, to avoid resolving on technicalities. For example, for the Odd Perfect Numbers question, by my current understanding of the statement, proving that an odd perfect number exists (including via a non-constructive proof) will count as a disproof of the conjecture and thus solved.\n\n\n\"by June 2027\" means \"by EoM June 2027\". Same for years.\n\nPoincaré and NS count toward ≥4 and ≥6.\n\nFor the option OpenAI Open Problems saturated by Jan 2028, saturated means 100% excluding the problems deemed impossible. The standard meaning of 'saturated' in AI benchmarking.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7707.291295905139,"volume_24hr":2533.8773266365756,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.236820220947266,"normalized_volume":29.63995361328125,"liquidity":2400.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"tags":["science-default","millenium-prize-problems","world-default","mathematics","technology-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Hodge conjecture solved by June 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.557138,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.18745899999999993,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":17.940617502075725,"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:02.519738Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:02.519738Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:19.680523Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","chart_24h":[944.0605498326432,972.7678905621704,992.4345572288371,1272.4311166865732,1274.4311166865732,2524.4275004390415,2527.2106599699086,2533.8773266365756],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"y9US6pEqqt","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"Hodge conjecture solved by June 2027","group_item_title":"Hodge conjecture solved by June 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.557138,0.442862],"probability":0.557138,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":954.1759968201426,"volume_24hr":47.940617502075725,"prob_24h_change":-0.18745899999999993,"volume_24h_change":17.940617502075725,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.437295913696289,"normalized_volume":17.422666549682617,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:11.144339Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:03.127111Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":[0.744597,0.620504,0.56,0.56,0.557138,0.557138,0.557138]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qEzLSyhSP9","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"≥4 Millenniums by Feb 2027","group_item_title":"≥4 Millenniums by Feb 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.4,0.6],"probability":0.4,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1830.8849123131672,"volume_24hr":555.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":542.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.82697296142578,"normalized_volume":20.886459350585938,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:11.144339Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:03.127111Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":[0.4,0.411687,0.411687,0.407811,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NdQdtz9lcR","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"Odd perfect numbers by EoY 2027.","group_item_title":"Odd perfect numbers by EoY 2027.","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.38,0.62],"probability":0.38,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":207.83759481749965,"volume_24hr":20.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.616044044494629,"normalized_volume":10.557525634765625,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:11.144339Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:03.127111Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":[0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38]},{"source":"manifold","id":"gSttdScuR8","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture solved by EoY 2026","group_item_title":"Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture solved by EoY 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.37508,0.62492],"probability":0.37508,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":788.2902791878179,"volume_24hr":30.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.085121,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.68921184539795,"normalized_volume":16.46742820739746,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:11.144339Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:03.127111Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":[0.460201,0.37508,0.37508,0.37508,0.37508,0.37508,0.37508]},{"source":"manifold","id":"AlntgluRgS","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"Goldbach conjecture solved by May 2027","group_item_title":"Goldbach conjecture solved by May 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.23527,0.76473],"probability":0.23527,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":165.14740769904992,"volume_24hr":2.0,"prob_24h_change":0.00790200000000002,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.9916992783546448,"normalized_volume":9.672903060913086,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:11.144339Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:03.127111Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":[0.227368,0.23527,0.23527,0.23527,0.23527,0.23527,0.23527]},{"source":"manifold","id":"nNqlIIcQdA","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"RH solved by June 2027","group_item_title":"RH solved by June 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.22,0.78],"probability":0.22,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":416.9940440565933,"volume_24hr":13.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.722538948059082,"normalized_volume":13.478706359863281,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:11.144339Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:03.127111Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":[0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NcAhSIIp8g","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"≥6 Millennium by EoY 2027","group_item_title":"≥6 Millennium by EoY 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.2,0.8],"probability":0.2,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":860.3513903386495,"volume_24hr":525.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.25336456298828,"normalized_volume":16.901582717895508,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:11.144339Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:03.127111Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":[0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2lgqnqLQIp","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"P vs NP by EoY 2027","group_item_title":"P vs NP by EoY 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.88],"probability":0.12,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":559.9038036507071,"volume_24hr":40.99219280064369,"prob_24h_change":-0.024383000000000016,"volume_24h_change":19.992192800643693,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.477563858032227,"normalized_volume":14.824225425720215,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:11.144339Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:03.127111Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":[0.144383,0.133824,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hLnUuhlsQP","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"Twin Prime conjecture solved by EoY 2026","group_item_title":"Twin Prime conjecture solved by EoY 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.095719,0.904281],"probability":0.095719,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":390.8831678279076,"volume_24hr":1.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0036599999999999966,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.3947680592536926,"normalized_volume":13.19214153289795,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:11.144339Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:03.127111Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":[0.092059,0.095719,0.095719,0.095719,0.095719,0.095719,0.095719]},{"source":"manifold","id":"d6yputzA8t","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"The entire pre-2026 mathematical edifice is considered solved by EoY 2029","group_item_title":"The entire pre-2026 mathematical edifice is considered solved by EoY 2029","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.061243,0.938757],"probability":0.061243,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":478.5452852519592,"volume_24hr":100.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.026587000000000006,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.500770568847656,"normalized_volume":14.09925651550293,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:11.144339Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T12:39:03.127111Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":[0.08783,0.061243,0.061243,0.061243,0.061243,0.061243,0.061243]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dI22Ac56sQ","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"OpenAI Open Problems saturated by Jan 2028","group_item_title":"OpenAI Open Problems saturated by Jan 2028","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.54,0.46],"probability":0.54,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":124.78599224488784,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.648569107055664,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"Ryz9ACnsgN","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"ABC Conjecture by May 2027","group_item_title":"ABC Conjecture by May 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.319097,0.680903],"probability":0.319097,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-10T20:57:44.528000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":71.63988673909972,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.795670032501221,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"2gyZpcEcQz","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"Yang-Mills existence and mass gap solved by May 2027","group_item_title":"Yang-Mills existence and mass gap solved by May 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.230325,0.769675],"probability":0.230325,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":286.980047025427,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.865959167480469,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"manifold","id":"8u2utSnzpZ","event_id":"tncQ6NqutE","slug":null,"question":"Collatz by EoY 2027","group_item_title":"Collatz by EoY 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.056626,0.943374],"probability":0.056626,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-09T00:10:50.914000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":570.8714879322296,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.915071487426758,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","added_at":"2026-09-15T04:54:20.194465Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/what-mathematical-statement-will-ha","event_title":"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tncQ6NqutE","as_of":"2026-09-15T12:54:36.178859Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?\" — top market at 40% probability across 14 outcomes","source_url":null}}