{"source":"manifold","id":"ttdOSsIt0g","ticker":null,"slug":"will-venezuela-enter-a-new-hot-war","title":"Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?","description":"Whether the United States, Guyana, another country, or a civil war, this market resolves Yes if Venezuela is in a new entry on Wikipedia's active conflicts page in the Minor or Major Wars categories by the end of 2026. This does not include the existing Colombian-Venezuelan conflict entry. Obvious wiki vandalizm doesn't count either, and Venezuela's participation in the conflict must be actively martial to count if they are added as a new beligerent to an existing war. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-09T16:20:36.867000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13839.758249107444,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.1324348449707,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.078102,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.078102,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-venezuela-enter-a-new-hot-war","chart_24h":[0.078102,0.078102],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"ttdOSsIt0g","event_id":"ttdOSsIt0g","slug":"will-venezuela-enter-a-new-hot-war","question":"Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Whether the United States, Guyana, another country, or a civil war, this market resolves Yes if Venezuela is in a new entry on Wikipedia's active conflicts page in the Minor or Major Wars categories by the end of 2026. This does not include the existing Colombian-Venezuelan conflict entry. Obvious wiki vandalizm doesn't count either, and Venezuela's participation in the conflict must be actively martial to count if they are added as a new beligerent to an existing war. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.078102,0.921898],"probability":0.078102,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-09T16:20:36.867000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13839.758249107444,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.1324348449707,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-21T08:58:18.488248Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-venezuela-enter-a-new-hot-war","event_title":"Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.078102,0.078102]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/ttdOSsIt0g","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:31:03.532876Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?\" — top market at 8% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}