{"source":"manifold","id":"tuVUq6qMhXZPfr9IARa5","ticker":null,"slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla","title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?","description":"Phrasing here matters, I will count \"P(doom)\" in text, and also things like \"probability of doom\", \"P doom\", \"chance we all die\" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.\n\nP(doom|something else) is not P(doom).\n\nHe must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FFgKp0_yKq2.png?alt=media&token=de2de2d8-2d84-4304-8b05-b596a9960de9","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-05-14T07:54:49.850000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T12:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10045.17683462212,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.44715690612793,"liquidity":1155.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.125014,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.125014,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-08T12:38:29.980749Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-08T12:38:29.980749Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"tuVUq6qMhXZPfr9IARa5","event_id":"tuVUq6qMhXZPfr9IARa5","slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla","question":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Phrasing here matters, I will count \"P(doom)\" in text, and also things like \"probability of doom\", \"P doom\", \"chance we all die\" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.\n\nP(doom|something else) is not P(doom).\n\nHe must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FFgKp0_yKq2.png?alt=media&token=de2de2d8-2d84-4304-8b05-b596a9960de9","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.125014,0.874986],"probability":0.125014,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-05-14T07:54:49.850000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T12:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10045.17683462212,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.44715690612793,"liquidity":1155.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T13:14:03.496597Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-08T12:36:18.548909Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla","event_title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/tuVUq6qMhXZPfr9IARa5","as_of":"2026-09-09T00:03:00.461289Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?\" — top market at 13% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}