{"source":"manifold","id":"u4ytTaXgzGjA01hnFX7P","ticker":null,"slug":"by-2029-will-any-car-drive-itself-c","title":"Before 2029, will any car drive itself, completely unassisted, from a city on the east coast of the USA to the west?","description":"The entire drive must be done autonomously, under its own propulsion, with no human input. Humans can help with any parts other than driving and navigation, such as fueling/charging the car and performing repairs. The original route can be chosen by a human, but after that, any updates to the route due to road closures, heavy traffic, running out of gas and needing to go to a gas station, etc. must be decided on by the car.\n\nThe car must not break any traffic laws that could reasonably get a human driver in trouble. (e.g. if it sees an object in the road and chooses to swerve into an empty opposite-direction lane in order to avoid the object, that's fine.) It also must not engage in any behavior that is legal but still highly unsafe, such as running into a pedestrian who's in the road illegally without a crosswalk. Other road-related laws that don't have to do with driving capability, such as an expired registration or a law against self-driving cars, won't disqualify the run.\n\nIf's fine if there's a human physically inside the car, they just can't provide any control inputs. If a human driver has to take over even once, such as to avoid an unexpected dangerous situation or help the car navigate through a complicated construction area, that disqualifies the trip.\n\nRemote human driving, such as a human in an office looking at sensor feeds and driving the car from there, does not count as \"self-driving\".\n\nIn order for the route to qualify, it must start and end in some urban area, complete with the traditional challenges to self-driving cars that such an area provides. (The goal is to show that the car is capable of handling any type of situation a human driver could, not just highway driving.)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-13T19:08:39.331000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3592.9492551978406,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.160888671875,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.802861,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2029, will any car drive itself, completely unassisted, from a city on the east coast of the USA to the west?","top_outcome_probability":0.802861,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T14:36:54.128655Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T14:36:54.128655Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-2029-will-any-car-drive-itself-c","chart_24h":[0.802861,0.802861,0.802861,0.802861,0.802861,0.802861,0.802861],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"u4ytTaXgzGjA01hnFX7P","event_id":"u4ytTaXgzGjA01hnFX7P","slug":"by-2029-will-any-car-drive-itself-c","question":"Before 2029, will any car drive itself, completely unassisted, from a city on the east coast of the USA to the west?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The entire drive must be done autonomously, under its own propulsion, with no human input. Humans can help with any parts other than driving and navigation, such as fueling/charging the car and performing repairs. The original route can be chosen by a human, but after that, any updates to the route due to road closures, heavy traffic, running out of gas and needing to go to a gas station, etc. must be decided on by the car.\n\nThe car must not break any traffic laws that could reasonably get a human driver in trouble. (e.g. if it sees an object in the road and chooses to swerve into an empty opposite-direction lane in order to avoid the object, that's fine.) It also must not engage in any behavior that is legal but still highly unsafe, such as running into a pedestrian who's in the road illegally without a crosswalk. Other road-related laws that don't have to do with driving capability, such as an expired registration or a law against self-driving cars, won't disqualify the run.\n\nIf's fine if there's a human physically inside the car, they just can't provide any control inputs. If a human driver has to take over even once, such as to avoid an unexpected dangerous situation or help the car navigate through a complicated construction area, that disqualifies the trip.\n\nRemote human driving, such as a human in an office looking at sensor feeds and driving the car from there, does not count as \"self-driving\".\n\nIn order for the route to qualify, it must start and end in some urban area, complete with the traditional challenges to self-driving cars that such an area provides. (The goal is to show that the car is capable of handling any type of situation a human driver could, not just highway driving.)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.802861,0.197139],"probability":0.802861,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-13T19:08:39.331000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3592.9492551978406,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.160888671875,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T14:36:09.354320Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T14:36:09.354320Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-2029-will-any-car-drive-itself-c","event_title":"Before 2029, will any car drive itself, completely unassisted, from a city on the east coast of the USA to the west?","chart_24h":[0.802861,0.802861,0.802861,0.802861,0.802861,0.802861,0.802861]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/u4ytTaXgzGjA01hnFX7P","as_of":"2026-06-10T16:48:39.384449Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Before 2029, will any car drive itself, completely unassisted, from a city on the east coast of the USA to the west?\" — top market at 80% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}