{"source":"manifold","id":"uAehxym8w6sfsIZ8Iom8","ticker":null,"slug":"if-lantern-bioworks-successfully-re","title":"[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?","description":"Lantern Bioworks is attempting to cure cavities via a treatment that modifies the oral microbiome; see this manifund proposal and this precondition market.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Austin/if-funded-will-lantern-bioworks-suc)<strike>If they achieve their bioengineering goal</strike> They have achieved their bioengineering goal. Will they be able to get \"shots in arms\" (or, uh, \"bacteria in mouths\") at a 10,000-person scale by 2030? (Participants treated in trials count.)\n\nIt's not clear how public this information will be, though hopefully they'll be willing to share. Resolution may be delayed. If 6+ months after close it seems like we won't get a concrete answer, may resolve to % based on my credence that this has happened. I will not bet.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-20T20:26:12.161000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":58822.13696545616,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.61845779418945,"liquidity":6165.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Business","Health","Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.601278,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.601278,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-16T16:14:47.269798Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-16T16:14:47.269798Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jcb/if-lantern-bioworks-successfully-re","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"uAehxym8w6sfsIZ8Iom8","event_id":"uAehxym8w6sfsIZ8Iom8","slug":"if-lantern-bioworks-successfully-re","question":"[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Lantern Bioworks is attempting to cure cavities via a treatment that modifies the oral microbiome; see this manifund proposal and this precondition market.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Austin/if-funded-will-lantern-bioworks-suc)<strike>If they achieve their bioengineering goal</strike> They have achieved their bioengineering goal. Will they be able to get \"shots in arms\" (or, uh, \"bacteria in mouths\") at a 10,000-person scale by 2030? (Participants treated in trials count.)\n\nIt's not clear how public this information will be, though hopefully they'll be willing to share. Resolution may be delayed. If 6+ months after close it seems like we won't get a concrete answer, may resolve to % based on my credence that this has happened. I will not bet.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.601278,0.398722],"probability":0.601278,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-20T20:26:12.161000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":58822.13696545616,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.61845779418945,"liquidity":6165.0,"categories":["Business","Health","Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-16T16:10:16.541294Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-16T16:10:16.541294Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jcb/if-lantern-bioworks-successfully-re","event_title":"[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/uAehxym8w6sfsIZ8Iom8","as_of":"2026-09-21T03:53:48.006819Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?\" — top market at 60% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}