{"source":"manifold","id":"uQPZV2B2u4aUTvZWGgoD","ticker":null,"slug":"by-eoy-2026-will-it-seem-as-if-deep","title":"By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?","description":"Formalization of: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1725286678401835210.\n\n'Hit a wall' means roughly as I understand it that rate of advancement of underlying capabilities has slowed greatly compared to the pace of 2021-2023.  \n\nResolution will be my evaluation of consensus opinion. Best available form of polling will be used if needed. I will ask about the term 'hit a wall' and noting how I understand its meaning, in that case.\n\nNote that this measures gains in the underlying capabilities of the AI systems. It does NOT refer to their economic impacts, which may still be accelerating.\n\nSee here for house rules: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ge3Jf5Hnon8wq4xqT/zvi-s-manifold-markets-house-rules","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-17T12:46:41.822000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":61871.44755640093,"volume_24hr":3031.9999999999995,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.29220199584961,"normalized_volume":45.613128662109375,"liquidity":1695.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["technology-default","ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.039336,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?","top_outcome_probability":0.039336,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-19T00:28:18.594595Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-19T00:28:18.594595Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/by-eoy-2026-will-it-seem-as-if-deep","chart_24h":[0.039336,0.039336,0.039336,0.039336],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"uQPZV2B2u4aUTvZWGgoD","event_id":"uQPZV2B2u4aUTvZWGgoD","slug":"by-eoy-2026-will-it-seem-as-if-deep","question":"By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Formalization of: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1725286678401835210.\n\n'Hit a wall' means roughly as I understand it that rate of advancement of underlying capabilities has slowed greatly compared to the pace of 2021-2023.  \n\nResolution will be my evaluation of consensus opinion. Best available form of polling will be used if needed. I will ask about the term 'hit a wall' and noting how I understand its meaning, in that case.\n\nNote that this measures gains in the underlying capabilities of the AI systems. It does NOT refer to their economic impacts, which may still be accelerating.\n\nSee here for house rules: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ge3Jf5Hnon8wq4xqT/zvi-s-manifold-markets-house-rules","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.039336,0.960664],"probability":0.039336,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-17T12:46:41.822000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":61871.44755640093,"volume_24hr":3031.9999999999995,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":55.29220199584961,"normalized_volume":45.613128662109375,"liquidity":1695.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-19T00:27:25.622217Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-19T00:27:25.622217Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/by-eoy-2026-will-it-seem-as-if-deep","event_title":"By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?","chart_24h":[0.039336,0.039336,0.039336,0.039336]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/uQPZV2B2u4aUTvZWGgoD","as_of":"2026-08-19T00:38:44.974527Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?\" — top market at 4% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}