{"source":"manifold","id":"uWr92jP9oG7RsVvRgJDo","ticker":null,"slug":"will-real-money-prediction-markets-42a8f962e11b","title":"Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?","description":"Resolves YES if at any point in time, I can legally, from a computer in the continental US connected directly to the internet with no VPN, without entering any information that suggests that I am not in the US, bet at least $100 in a prediction market where winners can easily cash out whatever currency the market uses into real USD in their (US) bank account. Resolves NO on resolution date if the YES criterion has not been met.\n\nUPDATE 3/12 17:13 EST: Adding the requirement that I can easily create a market on any reasonable question for $100 or less. \"Easily\" means the question goes up within one business day of me posting it. The $100 maximum cost includes any membership I would need to get, as well as time cost if the process takes longer than 5 minutes. For these purposes, I'll value my time at $1/minute. Here is the sha256 hash of the question I will try to make a market on for resolution of this market:\n\n28fe37ef210c1eb6de6d40da049a59b977fc08e591d904c8d1f4adbaf4545da4\n\nIt is in a similar reference class to \"Will Sam Altman still be the CEO of OpenAI in one week?\" i.e. it's easily publicly verifiable and resolves a week after posting.\n\nIf you bet \"yes\" on this market before I updated, you can sell any number of those YES shares, and if you message me with screenshots of the transactions, I'll refund your losses, up to 100 mana per person.\n\nYou must sell your shares in order to get a refund\n\nUpdate 3/13 01:17 EST: I forgot to save the exact original text of my question. Here is the hash of the same question worded differently. I saved it in a txt file this time.\n\n5fa730f5f234b6d5ee6d53bd8f32d815c0ea9633c56be316bacfb2474f732460\n\nUPDATE 4/24 17:12 EST: IF YOU WANT A REFUND (SEE ABOVE), SELL YOUR SHARES BEFORE JUNE 1ST, 2024.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-06T09:06:50.460000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8907.01041508422,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.050546646118164,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.53,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.53,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/mudPi314/will-real-money-prediction-markets-42a8f962e11b","chart_24h":[0.53,0.53],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"uWr92jP9oG7RsVvRgJDo","event_id":"uWr92jP9oG7RsVvRgJDo","slug":"will-real-money-prediction-markets-42a8f962e11b","question":"Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if at any point in time, I can legally, from a computer in the continental US connected directly to the internet with no VPN, without entering any information that suggests that I am not in the US, bet at least $100 in a prediction market where winners can easily cash out whatever currency the market uses into real USD in their (US) bank account. Resolves NO on resolution date if the YES criterion has not been met.\n\nUPDATE 3/12 17:13 EST: Adding the requirement that I can easily create a market on any reasonable question for $100 or less. \"Easily\" means the question goes up within one business day of me posting it. The $100 maximum cost includes any membership I would need to get, as well as time cost if the process takes longer than 5 minutes. For these purposes, I'll value my time at $1/minute. Here is the sha256 hash of the question I will try to make a market on for resolution of this market:\n\n28fe37ef210c1eb6de6d40da049a59b977fc08e591d904c8d1f4adbaf4545da4\n\nIt is in a similar reference class to \"Will Sam Altman still be the CEO of OpenAI in one week?\" i.e. it's easily publicly verifiable and resolves a week after posting.\n\nIf you bet \"yes\" on this market before I updated, you can sell any number of those YES shares, and if you message me with screenshots of the transactions, I'll refund your losses, up to 100 mana per person.\n\nYou must sell your shares in order to get a refund\n\nUpdate 3/13 01:17 EST: I forgot to save the exact original text of my question. Here is the hash of the same question worded differently. I saved it in a txt file this time.\n\n5fa730f5f234b6d5ee6d53bd8f32d815c0ea9633c56be316bacfb2474f732460\n\nUPDATE 4/24 17:12 EST: IF YOU WANT A REFUND (SEE ABOVE), SELL YOUR SHARES BEFORE JUNE 1ST, 2024.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.53,0.47],"probability":0.53,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-06T09:06:50.460000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8907.01041508422,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.050546646118164,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T23:15:27.453992Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-18T23:36:48.857722Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/mudPi314/will-real-money-prediction-markets-42a8f962e11b","event_title":"Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?","chart_24h":[0.53,0.53]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/uWr92jP9oG7RsVvRgJDo","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:38:50.323292Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?\" — top market at 53% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}