{"source":"manifold","id":"uc4srtolhs","ticker":null,"slug":"will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs","title":"Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is \"by far [his] biggest yet\"? (Resolves to poll)","description":"For context, see this tweet.\n\nWithin the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.\n\nIf you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com\n\nResolution\n\nSee: @/DylanBowman/who-is-dwarkeshs-upcoming-biggest-g \n\nOnce that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to.\n\nThe phrasing will be something along the lines of \"Do you agree that [NAME] is 'by far the biggest guest yet' on Dwarkesh's podcast?\", with options \"Agree\" and \"Disagree\". \n\nIf \"Agree\" has the majority of votes, this market resolves YES.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix/zkmhgnesv7.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-22T16:55:14.367000Z","end_date":"2026-08-20T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12421.170963962357,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.362606048583984,"liquidity":400.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Mentions"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.24,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is \"by far [his] biggest yet\"? (Resolves to poll)","top_outcome_probability":0.24,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs","chart_24h":[0.24,0.24],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"uc4srtolhs","event_id":"uc4srtolhs","slug":"will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs","question":"Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is \"by far [his] biggest yet\"? (Resolves to poll)","group_item_title":null,"description":"For context, see this tweet.\n\nWithin the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.\n\nIf you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com\n\nResolution\n\nSee: @/DylanBowman/who-is-dwarkeshs-upcoming-biggest-g \n\nOnce that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to.\n\nThe phrasing will be something along the lines of \"Do you agree that [NAME] is 'by far the biggest guest yet' on Dwarkesh's podcast?\", with options \"Agree\" and \"Disagree\". \n\nIf \"Agree\" has the majority of votes, this market resolves YES.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix/zkmhgnesv7.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.24,0.76],"probability":0.24,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-22T16:55:14.367000Z","end_date":"2026-08-20T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12421.170963962357,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.362606048583984,"liquidity":400.0,"categories":["Mentions"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.497510Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs","event_title":"Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is \"by far [his] biggest yet\"? (Resolves to poll)","chart_24h":[0.24,0.24]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/uc4srtolhs","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:19:32.209348Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is \"by far [his] biggest yet\"? (Resolves to poll)\" — top market at 24% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}