{"source":"manifold","id":"ufAfbZGDs1wfgfasx9H3","ticker":null,"slug":"if-asi-is-achieved-and-doesnt-wipe","title":"If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?","description":"Definitions for this question:\n\n\"ASI\" = an emergent artificial intelligence with power or capabilities beyond human understanding\n\n\"doesn't wipe out humanity\" = humans still exist, and they still have biological bodies (modifications okay) and individual consciousnesses\n\n\"natural death\" = sickness, old age, genetic disorders, etc. (Doesn't include: accidents, war, foul play, divine reckoning of any variety, etc.)\n\n\"be cured\" = at minimum, all consenting humans are protected from natural death (by oversight, treatments, augmentation, or whatnot), and at least 50% of humanity's living population has been offered said protection\n\n\"within 5 years\" = 5 years from ASI, as best as can be determined\n\nThis resolves N/A if ASI is not achieved by market close or humans are all wiped out. Close date is highly speculative and may be adjusted if there's reasonable potential for a non-N/A resolution.\n\nAs presumably this question is regarding post-Singularity events, my attempts at definitions are likely insufficient. Take to the comments if you have suggestions for improvements that are in the spirit of the market.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Stralor%2Fda1d910a13c2.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-27T05:31:26.578000Z","end_date":"2055-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9495.985494949304,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.489002227783203,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.370929,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?","top_outcome_probability":0.370929,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Stralor/if-asi-is-achieved-and-doesnt-wipe","chart_24h":[0.370929,0.370929],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"ufAfbZGDs1wfgfasx9H3","event_id":"ufAfbZGDs1wfgfasx9H3","slug":"if-asi-is-achieved-and-doesnt-wipe","question":"If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Definitions for this question:\n\n\"ASI\" = an emergent artificial intelligence with power or capabilities beyond human understanding\n\n\"doesn't wipe out humanity\" = humans still exist, and they still have biological bodies (modifications okay) and individual consciousnesses\n\n\"natural death\" = sickness, old age, genetic disorders, etc. (Doesn't include: accidents, war, foul play, divine reckoning of any variety, etc.)\n\n\"be cured\" = at minimum, all consenting humans are protected from natural death (by oversight, treatments, augmentation, or whatnot), and at least 50% of humanity's living population has been offered said protection\n\n\"within 5 years\" = 5 years from ASI, as best as can be determined\n\nThis resolves N/A if ASI is not achieved by market close or humans are all wiped out. Close date is highly speculative and may be adjusted if there's reasonable potential for a non-N/A resolution.\n\nAs presumably this question is regarding post-Singularity events, my attempts at definitions are likely insufficient. Take to the comments if you have suggestions for improvements that are in the spirit of the market.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Stralor%2Fda1d910a13c2.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.370929,0.629071],"probability":0.370929,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-27T05:31:26.578000Z","end_date":"2055-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9495.985494949304,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.489002227783203,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Stralor/if-asi-is-achieved-and-doesnt-wipe","event_title":"If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?","chart_24h":[0.370929,0.370929]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/ufAfbZGDs1wfgfasx9H3","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:26:51.865457Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?\" — top market at 37% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}