{"source":"manifold","id":"v5aiqOrfwdPDw6nFco3w","ticker":null,"slug":"will-xi-jinping-continue-to-lead-ch","title":"Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?","description":"Xi Jinping secured a historic 3rd term as China's general secretary. This 3rd term is set to last 5 years until 2027, when the 21st party congress takes place. Will Xi Jinping secure a 4th term and continue to lead China through the end of 2028?\n\nResolution\n\nResolves YES if Xi Jinping holds any of the following offices (or their equivalents, in case they are changed) through the end of 2028:\n\nGeneral Secretary of the Communist Party of China\n\nChairman of the Central Military Commission\n\nPresident of the People's Republic of China\n\nResolves NO if at any point before the end of 2028, Xi holds none of these offices.\n\nResolution will be according to criteria at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9408/xi-no-longer-authority-of-china/.\n\n(Note that Xi assumed the office of General Secretary in November 2012 and assumed the office of President in March 2013 - this is why I wrote this question to ask about end of 2028 instead of 2027.)\n\n\nClose date updated to 2029-01-01 11:59 pm","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-24T01:01:14.875000Z","end_date":"2029-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15446.839062378811,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.90071105957031,"liquidity":1095.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.811173,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.811173,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-xi-jinping-continue-to-lead-ch","chart_24h":[0.811173,0.811173],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"v5aiqOrfwdPDw6nFco3w","event_id":"v5aiqOrfwdPDw6nFco3w","slug":"will-xi-jinping-continue-to-lead-ch","question":"Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Xi Jinping secured a historic 3rd term as China's general secretary. This 3rd term is set to last 5 years until 2027, when the 21st party congress takes place. Will Xi Jinping secure a 4th term and continue to lead China through the end of 2028?\n\nResolution\n\nResolves YES if Xi Jinping holds any of the following offices (or their equivalents, in case they are changed) through the end of 2028:\n\nGeneral Secretary of the Communist Party of China\n\nChairman of the Central Military Commission\n\nPresident of the People's Republic of China\n\nResolves NO if at any point before the end of 2028, Xi holds none of these offices.\n\nResolution will be according to criteria at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9408/xi-no-longer-authority-of-china/.\n\n(Note that Xi assumed the office of General Secretary in November 2012 and assumed the office of President in March 2013 - this is why I wrote this question to ask about end of 2028 instead of 2027.)\n\n\nClose date updated to 2029-01-01 11:59 pm","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.811173,0.188827],"probability":0.811173,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-24T01:01:14.875000Z","end_date":"2029-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15446.839062378811,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.90071105957031,"liquidity":1095.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-07-12T07:13:23.602661Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-31T11:08:02.086036Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-xi-jinping-continue-to-lead-ch","event_title":"Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?","chart_24h":[0.811173,0.811173]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/v5aiqOrfwdPDw6nFco3w","as_of":"2026-07-12T21:01:58.731358Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?\" — top market at 81% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}