{"source":"manifold","id":"vrEmgx8bp4U4wB0THALI","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-a-dinosaur-alive-by-2","title":"Will we bring back a dinosaur before 2040?","description":"This market resolves to YES if, before 2040, someone brings back a dinosaur.\n\nIt does not have to have exactly the DNA of a prehistoric dinosaur, but it must be close enough that biologists and paleontologists would agree it's a \"real dinosaur\", not a completely new kind of animal that just looks similar to dinosaurs. (And no, it can't just be a bird.) Modifying a bird genome can count, as long as the resulting animal not only looks like a dinosaur, but also acts like one, can breed new ones, etc.\n\nThe dinosaur does not need to reach maturity, but it must survive for at least a day without life support equipment.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-11T00:30:07.829000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T07:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2547.373496808516,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.091922760009766,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.23349,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we bring back a dinosaur before 2040?","top_outcome_probability":0.23349,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-dinosaur-alive-by-2","chart_24h":[0.23349,0.23349],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"vrEmgx8bp4U4wB0THALI","event_id":"vrEmgx8bp4U4wB0THALI","slug":"will-there-be-a-dinosaur-alive-by-2","question":"Will we bring back a dinosaur before 2040?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves to YES if, before 2040, someone brings back a dinosaur.\n\nIt does not have to have exactly the DNA of a prehistoric dinosaur, but it must be close enough that biologists and paleontologists would agree it's a \"real dinosaur\", not a completely new kind of animal that just looks similar to dinosaurs. (And no, it can't just be a bird.) Modifying a bird genome can count, as long as the resulting animal not only looks like a dinosaur, but also acts like one, can breed new ones, etc.\n\nThe dinosaur does not need to reach maturity, but it must survive for at least a day without life support equipment.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.23349,0.76651],"probability":0.23349,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-11T00:30:07.829000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T07:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2547.373496808516,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.091922760009766,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-dinosaur-alive-by-2","event_title":"Will we bring back a dinosaur before 2040?","chart_24h":[0.23349,0.23349]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/vrEmgx8bp4U4wB0THALI","as_of":"2026-06-10T23:28:39.280749Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we bring back a dinosaur before 2040?\" — top market at 23% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}