{"source":"manifold","id":"wvqnH8ivlqY2CysEd2Sr","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by","title":"Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?","description":"Essential prerequisites of utopia for humans:\n\n \n\n- Aging is abolished for at least 99% of humans.\n\n- Involuntary suffering is abolished for at least 90% of humans.\n- Average annual risk of death for humans falls below 1/2000.\n\n- No dystopian unintended consequences such as \"everyone is hooked up to a heroin dispenser\" or \"a significant fraction of the population is killed and uploaded as slave against their will\".\n\n \n\nHere \"utopia\" should be understood as something relatively non-demanding. Becoming a multi-planetary species is, for example, not necessary. Neither is mind uploading. Neither is abolishing death or suffering altogether. The only necessary requisites are the ones listed above. I understand the definition is still vague, especially because of the last requisite, but I'm OK with predictors filling the remaining gaps and potentially predicting according to conflicting definitions of utopia.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F8NSdKWWN3N.png?alt=media&token=324e33d5-f3da-435d-812d-0e3ae91179e1","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-02T14:01:13.613000Z","end_date":"2100-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17333.338665779345,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.7626953125,"liquidity":1775.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.591599,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?","top_outcome_probability":0.591599,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by","chart_24h":[0.591599,0.591599],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"wvqnH8ivlqY2CysEd2Sr","event_id":"wvqnH8ivlqY2CysEd2Sr","slug":"will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by","question":"Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Essential prerequisites of utopia for humans:\n\n \n\n- Aging is abolished for at least 99% of humans.\n\n- Involuntary suffering is abolished for at least 90% of humans.\n- Average annual risk of death for humans falls below 1/2000.\n\n- No dystopian unintended consequences such as \"everyone is hooked up to a heroin dispenser\" or \"a significant fraction of the population is killed and uploaded as slave against their will\".\n\n \n\nHere \"utopia\" should be understood as something relatively non-demanding. Becoming a multi-planetary species is, for example, not necessary. Neither is mind uploading. Neither is abolishing death or suffering altogether. The only necessary requisites are the ones listed above. I understand the definition is still vague, especially because of the last requisite, but I'm OK with predictors filling the remaining gaps and potentially predicting according to conflicting definitions of utopia.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F8NSdKWWN3N.png?alt=media&token=324e33d5-f3da-435d-812d-0e3ae91179e1","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.591599,0.408401],"probability":0.591599,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-02T14:01:13.613000Z","end_date":"2100-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17333.338665779345,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.7626953125,"liquidity":1775.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.497510Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by","event_title":"Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?","chart_24h":[0.591599,0.591599]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/wvqnH8ivlqY2CysEd2Sr","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:12:28.386160Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?\" — top market at 59% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}