{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/wvqnH8ivlqY2CysEd2Sr","as_of":"2026-10-24T08:02:44.411820Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?\" — 61% as of 2026-08-13 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/wvqnH8ivlqY2CysEd2Sr","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by"},"source":"manifold","id":"wvqnH8ivlqY2CysEd2Sr","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by","title":"Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?","description":"Essential prerequisites of utopia for humans:\n\n \n\n- Aging is abolished for at least 99% of humans.\n\n- Involuntary suffering is abolished for at least 90% of humans.\n- Average annual risk of death for humans falls below 1/2000.\n\n- No dystopian unintended consequences such as \"everyone is hooked up to a heroin dispenser\" or \"a significant fraction of the population is killed and uploaded as slave against their will\".\n\n \n\nHere \"utopia\" should be understood as something relatively non-demanding. Becoming a multi-planetary species is, for example, not necessary. Neither is mind uploading. Neither is abolishing death or suffering altogether. The only necessary requisites are the ones listed above. I understand the definition is still vague, especially because of the last requisite, but I'm OK with predictors filling the remaining gaps and potentially predicting according to conflicting definitions of utopia.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F8NSdKWWN3N.png?alt=media&token=324e33d5-f3da-435d-812d-0e3ae91179e1","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-02T14:01:13.613000Z","end_date":"2100-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17383.338665779345,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.06075668334961,"liquidity":1775.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.608233,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?","top_outcome_probability":0.608233,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-13T15:05:45.618639Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-13T15:05:45.618639Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"wvqnH8ivlqY2CysEd2Sr","event_id":"wvqnH8ivlqY2CysEd2Sr","slug":"will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by","question":"Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Essential prerequisites of utopia for humans:\n\n \n\n- Aging is abolished for at least 99% of humans.\n\n- Involuntary suffering is abolished for at least 90% of humans.\n- Average annual risk of death for humans falls below 1/2000.\n\n- No dystopian unintended consequences such as \"everyone is hooked up to a heroin dispenser\" or \"a significant fraction of the population is killed and uploaded as slave against their will\".\n\n \n\nHere \"utopia\" should be understood as something relatively non-demanding. Becoming a multi-planetary species is, for example, not necessary. Neither is mind uploading. Neither is abolishing death or suffering altogether. The only necessary requisites are the ones listed above. I understand the definition is still vague, especially because of the last requisite, but I'm OK with predictors filling the remaining gaps and potentially predicting according to conflicting definitions of utopia.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F8NSdKWWN3N.png?alt=media&token=324e33d5-f3da-435d-812d-0e3ae91179e1","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.608233,0.391767],"probability":0.608233,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-02T14:01:13.613000Z","end_date":"2100-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":17383.338665779345,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.06075668334961,"liquidity":1775.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T10:19:15.387484Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-13T15:01:58.316275Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by","event_title":"Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?","chart_24h":null}]}