{"source":"manifold","id":"xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm","ticker":null,"slug":"will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr","title":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?","description":"The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor is seeking an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu.\n\nWill Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or tried for war crimes or crimes against humanity?\n\nIt will not be sufficient for this market if an arrest is made by someone without the power to enforce the arrest or detain him (eg. an activist accosts him and says that they’re making an arrest but his security staff get him away from the activist) or for him to be tried in absentia by a court who cannot enforce any ruling.\n\nIf Netanyahu dies without ever having been arrested, detained or tried for these crimes, the market will resolve to NO.\n\nI don’t think that this resolution will be subjective, but just in case some edge case happens and it is subjective, I won’t be trading on this market.\n\nRelated market:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/when-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-rep \n\n","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimonGrayson/7967d705c4b0.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-05-20T17:59:33.286000Z","end_date":"2030-12-16T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17865.34804236103,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.9832878112793,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.108001,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?","top_outcome_probability":0.108001,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr","chart_24h":[0.108001,0.108001],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm","event_id":"xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm","slug":"will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr","question":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor is seeking an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu.\n\nWill Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or tried for war crimes or crimes against humanity?\n\nIt will not be sufficient for this market if an arrest is made by someone without the power to enforce the arrest or detain him (eg. an activist accosts him and says that they’re making an arrest but his security staff get him away from the activist) or for him to be tried in absentia by a court who cannot enforce any ruling.\n\nIf Netanyahu dies without ever having been arrested, detained or tried for these crimes, the market will resolve to NO.\n\nI don’t think that this resolution will be subjective, but just in case some edge case happens and it is subjective, I won’t be trading on this market.\n\nRelated market:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/when-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-rep \n\n","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimonGrayson/7967d705c4b0.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.108001,0.891999],"probability":0.108001,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-05-20T17:59:33.286000Z","end_date":"2030-12-16T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17865.34804236103,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.9832878112793,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.497510Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr","event_title":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?","chart_24h":[0.108001,0.108001]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm","as_of":"2026-06-10T16:48:39.013685Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?\" — top market at 11% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}