{"source":"manifold","id":"xyPVx6milmNnBmYqFxEO","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover","title":"Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created before we discover alien life.\n\n\nAGI questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nAlien life discovery questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-2f90be5ca48d \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-10cdf89aac16 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-50f151c4102f \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-6615ab742cc6@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-e944d3f186ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-b0a07b306797 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-df678746ea9a \n\nOther reference points for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\nOther reference points for discovery of alien life:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-aaddefa708d8 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1 \n\nThis question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies.\n\nIf evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered on Earth, then it must clearly point to the past or present existence of life outside of Earth's biosphere. This lifeform must have existed continuously for at least 1 million years off-Earth.\n\nIf evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered elsewhere, then it must have existed continuously outside of Earth's biosphere for at least 1 million years in order to qualify.\n\nIf this discovery occurs in multiple steps, then the step that leads to a 90% consensus among the scientific community is considered the \"discovery\" in the context of this question.\n\nThe definition of life in this question includes systems capable of self-replication, storing information and evolving.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-18T21:10:43.746000Z","end_date":"2100-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10595.130482851215,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.24648666381836,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.850972,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?","top_outcome_probability":0.850972,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover","chart_24h":[0.850972,0.850972],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"xyPVx6milmNnBmYqFxEO","event_id":"xyPVx6milmNnBmYqFxEO","slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover","question":"Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created before we discover alien life.\n\n\nAGI questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nAlien life discovery questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-2f90be5ca48d \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-10cdf89aac16 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-50f151c4102f \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-6615ab742cc6@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-e944d3f186ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-b0a07b306797 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-df678746ea9a \n\nOther reference points for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\nOther reference points for discovery of alien life:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-aaddefa708d8 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1 \n\nThis question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies.\n\nIf evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered on Earth, then it must clearly point to the past or present existence of life outside of Earth's biosphere. This lifeform must have existed continuously for at least 1 million years off-Earth.\n\nIf evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered elsewhere, then it must have existed continuously outside of Earth's biosphere for at least 1 million years in order to qualify.\n\nIf this discovery occurs in multiple steps, then the step that leads to a 90% consensus among the scientific community is considered the \"discovery\" in the context of this question.\n\nThe definition of life in this question includes systems capable of self-replication, storing information and evolving.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.850972,0.149028],"probability":0.850972,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-18T21:10:43.746000Z","end_date":"2100-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10595.130482851215,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.24648666381836,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover","event_title":"Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?","chart_24h":[0.850972,0.850972]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/xyPVx6milmNnBmYqFxEO","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:51:54.065205Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?\" — top market at 85% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}