{"source":"manifold","id":"y2UlOnS8t5","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-first-aigenerated-song-win","title":"Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?","description":"Definition of an AI-Generated Song:\n\nA song where AI has played a significant role in either:\n\nComposition (melody, harmony, chord progression)\n\nLyrics writing\n\nVocal or instrumental performance (e.g., via vocal synthesis or virtual instruments created primarily by AI)\n\nSignificant Role: For the song to qualify, AI must have contributed in a way that is more than minimal. This means:\n\nA substantial portion of the lyrics or melody must have been generated by AI, or\n\nThe primary vocal or instrumental performance must be AI-generated in a way that it's a key feature of the song.\n\nMajor Music Award:\n\nThe song must win one of the following awards:\n\nA Grammy Award in a top category like Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Song of the Year, or Best New Artist where the song or artist using AI is recognized.\n\nAn MTV Video Music Award (VMA) for categories like Video of the Year, Song of the Year, or Best New Artist if the video or artist involves significant AI contribution.\n\nA Billboard Music Award in categories such as Top Streaming Song, Top Selling Song, or Top Hot 100 Song.\n\nAn American Music Award (AMA) in categories like Favorite Song – Pop/Rock, Favorite Album – Pop/Rock, or Favorite Artist – New Artist if AI played a significant role.\n\nTimeline:\n\nThe award ceremony must take place on or before December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on the date the award is officially awarded, not the date of nomination or announcement.\n\nVerification:\n\nPublic acknowledgment by the artist, record label, or award committee of the AI's role in the song's creation at the time of winning or shortly before must be documented.\n\nOfficial award announcements, credible news sources, or statements from music industry professionals can serve as verification.\n\nDisqualification:\n\nSongs where AI was used only for production or mixing without contributing significantly to the creative elements will not count.\n\nIf there's a dispute about the extent of AI involvement, the market will resolve based on the most credible evidence available, potentially involving expert analysis from music technology fields.\n\n\nResolution Date:\n\nThe market will resolve on Dec 31, 2026, based on all awards given in 2025/26 or any announced winners before the end of 2026.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/TimothyBandors/qsEygn8Ey8.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-17T14:49:33.090000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T16:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30173.49015058712,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.2755126953125,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.083795,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.083795,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-610.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-30T21:13:16.485324Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-30T21:13:16.485324Z","added_at":"2026-09-29T21:22:50.545803Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-the-first-aigenerated-song-win","chart_24h":[0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"y2UlOnS8t5","event_id":"y2UlOnS8t5","slug":"will-the-first-aigenerated-song-win","question":"Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Definition of an AI-Generated Song:\n\nA song where AI has played a significant role in either:\n\nComposition (melody, harmony, chord progression)\n\nLyrics writing\n\nVocal or instrumental performance (e.g., via vocal synthesis or virtual instruments created primarily by AI)\n\nSignificant Role: For the song to qualify, AI must have contributed in a way that is more than minimal. This means:\n\nA substantial portion of the lyrics or melody must have been generated by AI, or\n\nThe primary vocal or instrumental performance must be AI-generated in a way that it's a key feature of the song.\n\nMajor Music Award:\n\nThe song must win one of the following awards:\n\nA Grammy Award in a top category like Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Song of the Year, or Best New Artist where the song or artist using AI is recognized.\n\nAn MTV Video Music Award (VMA) for categories like Video of the Year, Song of the Year, or Best New Artist if the video or artist involves significant AI contribution.\n\nA Billboard Music Award in categories such as Top Streaming Song, Top Selling Song, or Top Hot 100 Song.\n\nAn American Music Award (AMA) in categories like Favorite Song – Pop/Rock, Favorite Album – Pop/Rock, or Favorite Artist – New Artist if AI played a significant role.\n\nTimeline:\n\nThe award ceremony must take place on or before December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on the date the award is officially awarded, not the date of nomination or announcement.\n\nVerification:\n\nPublic acknowledgment by the artist, record label, or award committee of the AI's role in the song's creation at the time of winning or shortly before must be documented.\n\nOfficial award announcements, credible news sources, or statements from music industry professionals can serve as verification.\n\nDisqualification:\n\nSongs where AI was used only for production or mixing without contributing significantly to the creative elements will not count.\n\nIf there's a dispute about the extent of AI involvement, the market will resolve based on the most credible evidence available, potentially involving expert analysis from music technology fields.\n\n\nResolution Date:\n\nThe market will resolve on Dec 31, 2026, based on all awards given in 2025/26 or any announced winners before the end of 2026.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/TimothyBandors/qsEygn8Ey8.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.083795,0.916205],"probability":0.083795,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-17T14:49:33.090000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T16:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30173.49015058712,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-610.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.2755126953125,"liquidity":10000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-30T21:12:13.160493Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-30T21:12:13.160493Z","added_at":"2026-09-29T21:22:50.545803Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-the-first-aigenerated-song-win","event_title":"Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795,0.083795]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/y2UlOnS8t5","as_of":"2026-10-01T03:01:19.959763Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?\" — top market at 8% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}