{"source":"manifold","id":"yG5fvDCaxdGXZDD2IXGb","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0","title":"Will we discover alien life before 2032?","description":"Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2032.\n\nThis question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies.\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-2f90be5ca48d \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-10cdf89aac16 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-50f151c4102f \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-6615ab742cc6@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-e944d3f186ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-b0a07b306797 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-df678746ea9a \n\nOther questions for 2032:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-b347b1a76a97 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before-9c92871092bc \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406 \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0f2acadab75f \n\n@/RemNi/discovery-of-matter-outside-our-3d \n\n@/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be-93569dad097d \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-rouge-ai-before-2032 \n\nOther reference points for the discovery of alien life:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-aaddefa708d8 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1 \n\nIf evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered on Earth, then it must clearly point to the past or present existence of life outside of Earth's biosphere. This lifeform must have existed continuously for at least 1 million years off-Earth.\n\nIf evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered elsewhere, then it must have existed continuously outside of Earth's biosphere for at least 1 million years in order to qualify.\n\nIf this discovery occurs in multiple steps, then the step that leads to a 90% consensus among the scientific community is considered the \"discovery\" in the context of this question.\n\nThe definition of life in this question includes systems capable of self-replication, storing information and evolving.\n\nImage credits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:James_Webb_Space_Telescope_2009_top.jpg","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FS7J2MbKaVl.png?alt=media&token=3c806326-7a3f-45a6-9d1b-8caf3b44534f","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-09T13:36:11.050000Z","end_date":"2032-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6835.397257810019,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.269311904907227,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.127571,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we discover alien life before 2032?","top_outcome_probability":0.127571,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0","chart_24h":[0.127571,0.127571],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"yG5fvDCaxdGXZDD2IXGb","event_id":"yG5fvDCaxdGXZDD2IXGb","slug":"will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0","question":"Will we discover alien life before 2032?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2032.\n\nThis question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies.\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-2f90be5ca48d \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-10cdf89aac16 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-50f151c4102f \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-6615ab742cc6@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-e944d3f186ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-b0a07b306797 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-df678746ea9a \n\nOther questions for 2032:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-b347b1a76a97 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before-9c92871092bc \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406 \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0f2acadab75f \n\n@/RemNi/discovery-of-matter-outside-our-3d \n\n@/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be-93569dad097d \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-rouge-ai-before-2032 \n\nOther reference points for the discovery of alien life:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-aaddefa708d8 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1 \n\nIf evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered on Earth, then it must clearly point to the past or present existence of life outside of Earth's biosphere. This lifeform must have existed continuously for at least 1 million years off-Earth.\n\nIf evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered elsewhere, then it must have existed continuously outside of Earth's biosphere for at least 1 million years in order to qualify.\n\nIf this discovery occurs in multiple steps, then the step that leads to a 90% consensus among the scientific community is considered the \"discovery\" in the context of this question.\n\nThe definition of life in this question includes systems capable of self-replication, storing information and evolving.\n\nImage credits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:James_Webb_Space_Telescope_2009_top.jpg","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FS7J2MbKaVl.png?alt=media&token=3c806326-7a3f-45a6-9d1b-8caf3b44534f","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.127571,0.872429],"probability":0.127571,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-09T13:36:11.050000Z","end_date":"2032-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6835.397257810019,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.269311904907227,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T19:15:38.382573Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-06T06:31:02.951423Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0","event_title":"Will we discover alien life before 2032?","chart_24h":[0.127571,0.127571]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/yG5fvDCaxdGXZDD2IXGb","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:11:24.452209Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we discover alien life before 2032?\" — top market at 13% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}