{"source":"manifold","id":"yj83FbGSVOVNzBFzG0cN","ticker":"yj83FbGSVOVNzBFzG0cN","slug":"when-will-ev-sales-exceed-those-of","title":"🚘 When will global EV sales exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?","description":"In what year will global sales of EVs exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?\n\nFor the purposes of this market, hybrids don’t count towards either category.\n\nResolves based on analysis by Bloomberg or any other reliable media outlet that crunches sales globally and produces a report.\n\nBackground:\n\nhttps://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133234_report-globally-internal-combustion-car-sales-have-already-peaked","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/BlueDragon%2F61c5bbe7630a.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-04T22:22:55.320000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4607.1488106193365,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.683107376098633,"liquidity":1235.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["technology-default","ev","tesla","electric-vehicles"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"2030 - 2040","top_outcome_probability":0.504888,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.087263Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.087263Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/when-will-ev-sales-exceed-those-of","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"8e7c0f865fb0","event_id":"yj83FbGSVOVNzBFzG0cN","slug":null,"question":"2030 - 2040","group_item_title":"2030 - 2040","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.504888,0.495112],"probability":0.504888,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-04T22:22:55.320000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":50.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.796887397766113,"liquidity":306.5165042944955,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:53:40.740120Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:53:33.631718Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/when-will-ev-sales-exceed-those-of","event_title":"🚘 When will global EV sales exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?","chart_24h":[0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888,0.504888]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2ce5d9e6dee4","event_id":"yj83FbGSVOVNzBFzG0cN","slug":null,"question":"Before 2030","group_item_title":"Before 2030","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.489406,0.510594],"probability":0.489406,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-04T22:22:55.320000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":402.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.494441032409668,"liquidity":786.5165042944955,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:53:40.740120Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:53:33.631718Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/when-will-ev-sales-exceed-those-of","event_title":"🚘 When will global EV sales exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?","chart_24h":[0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406,0.489406]},{"source":"manifold","id":"61b628d28f69","event_id":"yj83FbGSVOVNzBFzG0cN","slug":null,"question":"Never / 2040 or after ","group_item_title":"Never / 2040 or after ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.005706,0.994294],"probability":0.005706,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-04T22:22:55.320000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":46.51650429449553,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:53:40.740120Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:53:33.631718Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/when-will-ev-sales-exceed-those-of","event_title":"🚘 When will global EV sales exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?","chart_24h":[0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706,0.005706]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/yj83FbGSVOVNzBFzG0cN","as_of":"2026-07-25T20:11:07.530555Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"🚘 When will global EV sales exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?\" — top market at 50% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}