{"source":"manifold","id":"yzDIwPeY3ZaZZjmynbjP","ticker":null,"slug":"will-bryan-caplan-win-his-bet-with","title":"Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?","description":"To summarize: \n\nThis market resolves to \"Yes\" if Bryan Caplan wins and the AI fails his exams. \n\nThis market resolves to \"No\" if Matthew Barnett wins and the AI passes Caplan's exam\n\nDetails here: https://betonit.substack.com/p/ai-bet\n\nBy January 30, 2029, Bryan Caplan will give his six most recent midterm exams to an AI selected by Matthew Barnett. The AI will be instructed to take those exams.\n\nBryan will then grade the AI's work, as if it were one of his students. The AI will be allowed to do each exam only once. \n\nIf the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500. Otherwise, Matthew owes Bryan $500. For the purpose of this bet, an A- counts as an A. \n\nMatthew will prepay the $500 in January 2023; the preceding terms have been pre-adjusted to compensate Matthew for expected inflation. \n\nIf Matthew suspects that an exam was flawed or grading was unfair, he can appeal to Alex Tabarrok, or another economist agreed upon by both parties, who has final authority to exclude an exam from the pool and replace it with Bryan’s most recent preceding midterm. \n\nIf more than four exams in total are excluded, the bet is called off and Matthew receives his $500 back. \n\nIf either party is unable to comply with the terms due to death or incapacity, Bryan’s heirs keep the $500.\n\nIf the bet is called off, I will resolve as \"N/A\". That way we can focus the predictions on whether the AI can actually pass the exams rather than on whether it's unresolvable or whether the participants die prematurely.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-19T18:31:46.913000Z","end_date":"2029-01-31T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":70826.37719152049,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":46.82075119018555,"liquidity":2120.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Other"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.059526,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?","top_outcome_probability":0.059526,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-bryan-caplan-win-his-bet-with","chart_24h":[0.059526,0.059526],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"yzDIwPeY3ZaZZjmynbjP","event_id":"yzDIwPeY3ZaZZjmynbjP","slug":"will-bryan-caplan-win-his-bet-with","question":"Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?","group_item_title":null,"description":"To summarize: \n\nThis market resolves to \"Yes\" if Bryan Caplan wins and the AI fails his exams. \n\nThis market resolves to \"No\" if Matthew Barnett wins and the AI passes Caplan's exam\n\nDetails here: https://betonit.substack.com/p/ai-bet\n\nBy January 30, 2029, Bryan Caplan will give his six most recent midterm exams to an AI selected by Matthew Barnett. The AI will be instructed to take those exams.\n\nBryan will then grade the AI's work, as if it were one of his students. The AI will be allowed to do each exam only once. \n\nIf the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500. Otherwise, Matthew owes Bryan $500. For the purpose of this bet, an A- counts as an A. \n\nMatthew will prepay the $500 in January 2023; the preceding terms have been pre-adjusted to compensate Matthew for expected inflation. \n\nIf Matthew suspects that an exam was flawed or grading was unfair, he can appeal to Alex Tabarrok, or another economist agreed upon by both parties, who has final authority to exclude an exam from the pool and replace it with Bryan’s most recent preceding midterm. \n\nIf more than four exams in total are excluded, the bet is called off and Matthew receives his $500 back. \n\nIf either party is unable to comply with the terms due to death or incapacity, Bryan’s heirs keep the $500.\n\nIf the bet is called off, I will resolve as \"N/A\". That way we can focus the predictions on whether the AI can actually pass the exams rather than on whether it's unresolvable or whether the participants die prematurely.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.059526,0.940474],"probability":0.059526,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-19T18:31:46.913000Z","end_date":"2029-01-31T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":70826.37719152049,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":46.82075119018555,"liquidity":2120.0,"categories":["Other"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.497510Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-bryan-caplan-win-his-bet-with","event_title":"Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?","chart_24h":[0.059526,0.059526]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/yzDIwPeY3ZaZZjmynbjP","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:31:45.306514Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?\" — top market at 6% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}