{"source":"manifold","id":"z5R2P9caSgmq4BdsiTzw","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-detect-extraterrestrial-int","title":"Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?","description":"Disclaimers:\n\nThis question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.\n\nIf you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-14T20:26:38.993000Z","end_date":"2124-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7361.79392913534,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.7618465423584,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.455666,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?","top_outcome_probability":0.455666,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AllisonDuettmann/will-we-detect-extraterrestrial-int","chart_24h":[0.455666,0.455666],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"z5R2P9caSgmq4BdsiTzw","event_id":"z5R2P9caSgmq4BdsiTzw","slug":"will-we-detect-extraterrestrial-int","question":"Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Disclaimers:\n\nThis question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.\n\nIf you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.455666,0.544334],"probability":0.455666,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-14T20:26:38.993000Z","end_date":"2124-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7361.79392913534,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.7618465423584,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-14T02:04:33.401735Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AllisonDuettmann/will-we-detect-extraterrestrial-int","event_title":"Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?","chart_24h":[0.455666,0.455666]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/z5R2P9caSgmq4BdsiTzw","as_of":"2026-06-11T07:31:33.975969Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?\" — top market at 46% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}