{"source":"manifold","id":"zPSSIRLCR2","ticker":null,"slug":"did-tech-companies-spy-on-you-throu","title":"Did tech companies spy on you through device microphones?","description":"Simon Willison says:\n\nOne of my weirder hobbies is trying to convince people that the idea that companies are listening to you through your phone’s microphone and serving you targeted ads is a conspiracy theory that isn’t true.\n\nhttps://simonwillison.net/2025/Jan/2/they-spy-on-you-but-not-like-that/\n\nWill there be good evidence by 2030 that tech companies spied on users through device microphones BEFORE 2025?\n\nThis only includes major tech companies/platforms such as Apple, Google, Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram.\n\nEvidence I would accept for this would be a mainstream media source (including smaller but reputable tech publications) publishing a story on this topic. Depending on how contentious the claim/story is, this question might have to wait for a court case before resolving.\n\nOther requirements for this to resolve YES:\n\nThe audio spying can be reasonably considered intentional\n\nThe audio (or derived text/insights) were used to serve targeted ads, likely by sharing data with third parties\n\nInstances of the spying are extremely likely to have occurred BEFORE Jan 1, 2025\n\nThis question will resolve NO if 2030 is reached with no good evidence of the above.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-01 (PST): - Excludes government cooperation: This market focuses solely on spying conducted by tech companies for the purpose of targeted ads, not including scenarios where companies collaborate with governments. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Isolated random events, such as abuse of power by an insider, do not qualify as evidence.\n\nWidespread perpetration is required to resolve the market.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-01 (PST): - Exclusion of directed audio: Utterances directed at voice assistants (e.g., Siri, Alexa) as part of ad-targeting profiles do not count. The focus is on passive listening and undirected audio. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator\n\nClarification:\n\nA single major company (as listed in the description) systematically listening is sufficient to resolve YES.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-01 (PST): - Proof of Ads from Recordings: A class action settlement alone does not meet the requirements unless it includes evidence that ads were served based on recordings. (AI summary of creator comment)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/makeworld/UNuOzI9ISE.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-04T17:31:20.564000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10549.837532606398,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.21561050415039,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.07112,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Did tech companies spy on you through device microphones?","top_outcome_probability":0.07112,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/makeworld/did-tech-companies-spy-on-you-throu","chart_24h":[0.07112,0.07112],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"zPSSIRLCR2","event_id":"zPSSIRLCR2","slug":"did-tech-companies-spy-on-you-throu","question":"Did tech companies spy on you through device microphones?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Simon Willison says:\n\nOne of my weirder hobbies is trying to convince people that the idea that companies are listening to you through your phone’s microphone and serving you targeted ads is a conspiracy theory that isn’t true.\n\nhttps://simonwillison.net/2025/Jan/2/they-spy-on-you-but-not-like-that/\n\nWill there be good evidence by 2030 that tech companies spied on users through device microphones BEFORE 2025?\n\nThis only includes major tech companies/platforms such as Apple, Google, Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram.\n\nEvidence I would accept for this would be a mainstream media source (including smaller but reputable tech publications) publishing a story on this topic. Depending on how contentious the claim/story is, this question might have to wait for a court case before resolving.\n\nOther requirements for this to resolve YES:\n\nThe audio spying can be reasonably considered intentional\n\nThe audio (or derived text/insights) were used to serve targeted ads, likely by sharing data with third parties\n\nInstances of the spying are extremely likely to have occurred BEFORE Jan 1, 2025\n\nThis question will resolve NO if 2030 is reached with no good evidence of the above.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-01 (PST): - Excludes government cooperation: This market focuses solely on spying conducted by tech companies for the purpose of targeted ads, not including scenarios where companies collaborate with governments. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Isolated random events, such as abuse of power by an insider, do not qualify as evidence.\n\nWidespread perpetration is required to resolve the market.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-01 (PST): - Exclusion of directed audio: Utterances directed at voice assistants (e.g., Siri, Alexa) as part of ad-targeting profiles do not count. The focus is on passive listening and undirected audio. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator\n\nClarification:\n\nA single major company (as listed in the description) systematically listening is sufficient to resolve YES.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-01 (PST): - Proof of Ads from Recordings: A class action settlement alone does not meet the requirements unless it includes evidence that ads were served based on recordings. (AI summary of creator comment)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/makeworld/UNuOzI9ISE.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.07112,0.92888],"probability":0.07112,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-04T17:31:20.564000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10549.837532606398,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.21561050415039,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/makeworld/did-tech-companies-spy-on-you-throu","event_title":"Did tech companies spy on you through device microphones?","chart_24h":[0.07112,0.07112]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/zPSSIRLCR2","as_of":"2026-06-10T21:42:06.740368Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Did tech companies spy on you through device microphones?\" — top market at 7% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}