{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/zPcP6626Oy","as_of":"2026-10-24T06:57:01.397542Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?\" — 79% as of 2026-10-08 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/zPcP6626Oy","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/DanielLittQCSn/ai-outperforms-humans-in-all-mathem"},"source":"manifold","id":"zPcP6626Oy","ticker":null,"slug":"ai-outperforms-humans-in-all-mathem","title":"AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?","description":"Will I believe, 3 years from today, that publicly available AI tools have absolute advantage over human mathematicians in all areas of mathematical research?\n\nI will not participate in this market. \n\nSome background--I'm a math professor at the University of Toronto, mostly focusing on algebraic geometry and number theory.\n\nI will resolve this market YES if I think publicly available AI tools outperform most professional mathematicians (e.g. me) as of July 17, 2028, and NO otherwise. In particular, for a YES resolution, they should be able to create high-quality original research with very little human input.\n\nSee here for a related market, with a more precise operationalization of a related question, albeit with some minor problems as a proxy: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann\n\nUpdate 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that for a YES resolution, the AI must outperform humans in all areas of math research, which explicitly includes:\n\nCreating definitions\n\nMaking conjectures\n\nUpdate 2025-08-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the creator is unreachable at resolution time, the market should resolve to N/A.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-17T15:17:19.035000Z","end_date":"2028-07-18T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":82998.78849848379,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":47.187217712402344,"liquidity":2100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.791628,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.791628,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-08T22:38:53.126962Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-08T22:38:53.126962Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DanielLittQCSn/ai-outperforms-humans-in-all-mathem","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"zPcP6626Oy","event_id":"zPcP6626Oy","slug":"ai-outperforms-humans-in-all-mathem","question":"AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Will I believe, 3 years from today, that publicly available AI tools have absolute advantage over human mathematicians in all areas of mathematical research?\n\nI will not participate in this market. \n\nSome background--I'm a math professor at the University of Toronto, mostly focusing on algebraic geometry and number theory.\n\nI will resolve this market YES if I think publicly available AI tools outperform most professional mathematicians (e.g. me) as of July 17, 2028, and NO otherwise. In particular, for a YES resolution, they should be able to create high-quality original research with very little human input.\n\nSee here for a related market, with a more precise operationalization of a related question, albeit with some minor problems as a proxy: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann\n\nUpdate 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that for a YES resolution, the AI must outperform humans in all areas of math research, which explicitly includes:\n\nCreating definitions\n\nMaking conjectures\n\nUpdate 2025-08-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the creator is unreachable at resolution time, the market should resolve to N/A.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.791628,0.208372],"probability":0.791628,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-17T15:17:19.035000Z","end_date":"2028-07-18T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":82998.78849848379,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":47.187217712402344,"liquidity":2100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-08T22:37:01.293606Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-08T22:37:01.293606Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DanielLittQCSn/ai-outperforms-humans-in-all-mathem","event_title":"AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?","chart_24h":null}]}