{"source":"manifold","id":"zPwjG3k8QstuW2Cil0d8","ticker":null,"slug":"in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-write","title":"In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?","description":"Resolves as positive if an AI asked to write poetry in the style of Keats/Byron/Shelley etc can, on its first attempt, write a poem of at least two stanzas which I personally can't distinguish from the real thing. I am a fan of these poets and I think I would be pretty good at distinguishing them from imitators, including worse Romantic poets. The poem will need to use rhyme and rhythm correctly.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQvsDUmuUEz.png?alt=media&token=cc22b49f-2b22-4eb4-9146-4c5657f17a7f","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:53:19.991000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":68747.86784349786,"volume_24hr":172.6504070591257,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.83713150024414,"normalized_volume":45.94379806518555,"liquidity":2090.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.46,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?","top_outcome_probability":0.46,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.013280999999999987,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":72.65040705912571,"updated_at":"2026-09-09T02:21:24.095851Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T02:21:24.095851Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-write","chart_24h":[0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"zPwjG3k8QstuW2Cil0d8","event_id":"zPwjG3k8QstuW2Cil0d8","slug":"in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-write","question":"In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves as positive if an AI asked to write poetry in the style of Keats/Byron/Shelley etc can, on its first attempt, write a poem of at least two stanzas which I personally can't distinguish from the real thing. I am a fan of these poets and I think I would be pretty good at distinguishing them from imitators, including worse Romantic poets. The poem will need to use rhyme and rhythm correctly.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQvsDUmuUEz.png?alt=media&token=cc22b49f-2b22-4eb4-9146-4c5657f17a7f","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.46,0.54],"probability":0.46,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:53:19.991000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":68747.86784349786,"volume_24hr":172.6504070591257,"prob_24h_change":-0.013280999999999987,"volume_24h_change":72.65040705912571,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.83713150024414,"normalized_volume":45.94379806518555,"liquidity":2090.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-09T02:19:39.148063Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-09T02:19:39.148063Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-write","event_title":"In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?","chart_24h":[0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.473281,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/zPwjG3k8QstuW2Cil0d8","as_of":"2026-09-09T02:25:52.492144Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?\" — top market at 46% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}