{"source":"manifold","id":"zdhcd2fsyk","ticker":"zdhcd2fsyk","slug":"by-what-year-will-artificial-intell","title":"In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?","description":"Background\n\nThe Millennium Prize Problems are seven famous open questions in mathematics announced by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) in year 2000, each carrying a US $1 million reward for the first correct solution. Grigori Perelman’s 2003 proof of the Poincaré Conjecture settled one of them, leaving six unsolved challenges\n\nBirch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture\n\nHodge Conjecture\n\nNavier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness\n\nP vs NP\n\nRiemann Hypothesis\n\nYang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap\n\nAn AI system producing a formally accepted proof for any one of these six problems would mark a historic milestone for both mathematics and artificial-intelligence research.\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nEvidence required\n\nA peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal or an officially accepted CMI submission must show that the proof was generated by an AI system and that it fully resolves one of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.\n\nAI autonomy\n\nHumans may design, train, or fine-tune the model, but the final logical argument must be produced autonomously by the AI.\n\nHuman assistance is limited to setting up the architecture, curating public training data, and verifying formatting; no new mathematical insights may be added by people.\n\nEarliest-year rule\n\nThe market resolves to the bracket containing the calendar year in which the qualifying peer-reviewed paper is first made public.\n\nIf multiple Millennium problems are solved by AI, the earliest qualifying publication date determines resolution.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/yaqubali/821wj64abm.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-30T19:50:57.084000Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11646.924848246019,"volume_24hr":216.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.289080619812012,"normalized_volume":32.90866470336914,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["technology-default","ai","openai","technical-ai-timelines","ai-safety"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"2025-2029","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03999999999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":96.98762010571954,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:16.618640Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:16.618640Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T09:35:30.878876Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/by-what-year-will-artificial-intell","chart_24h":[209.44368406913134,143.46609066977314,359.46609066977317,281.99999999999994,216.0],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"lv9c7j452n","event_id":"zdhcd2fsyk","slug":null,"question":"2025-2029","group_item_title":"2025-2029","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-30T19:50:57.084000Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8989.525273111061,"volume_24hr":216.0,"prob_24h_change":0.03999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":96.98762010571954,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.289080619812012,"normalized_volume":31.113473892211914,"liquidity":25.000000000000004,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:19.984921Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:16.832184Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T09:35:31.483493Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/by-what-year-will-artificial-intell","event_title":"In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?","chart_24h":[0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5]},{"source":"manifold","id":"1n8upj3v76","event_id":"zdhcd2fsyk","slug":null,"question":"2030-2049","group_item_title":"2030-2049","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.388506,0.611494],"probability":0.388506,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-30T19:50:57.084000Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":202.74636998382204,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.026675000000000004,"volume_24h_change":-0.03223075705537326,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.612167358398438,"liquidity":25.000000000000004,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:21.950002Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:16.832184Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T09:35:31.483493Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/by-what-year-will-artificial-intell","event_title":"In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?","chart_24h":[0.415181,0.415181,0.415181,0.415181,0.415181,0.415181,0.415181,0.415181,0.415181,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506,0.388506]},{"source":"manifold","id":"jza1tbecr0","event_id":"zdhcd2fsyk","slug":null,"question":"2050-2074","group_item_title":"2050-2074","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.084956,0.915044],"probability":0.084956,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-30T19:50:57.084000Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010446999999999998,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":25.000000000000004,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:21.950002Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:16.832184Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T09:35:31.483493Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/by-what-year-will-artificial-intell","event_title":"In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?","chart_24h":[0.095403,0.095403,0.095403,0.095403,0.095403,0.095403,0.095403,0.095403,0.095403,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956,0.084956]},{"source":"manifold","id":"vdfvlum2y1","event_id":"zdhcd2fsyk","slug":null,"question":"2075-2099","group_item_title":"2075-2099","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.022251,0.977749],"probability":0.022251,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-30T19:50:57.084000Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0024600000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":25.000000000000004,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:21.950002Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:16.832184Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T09:35:31.483493Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/by-what-year-will-artificial-intell","event_title":"In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?","chart_24h":[0.024711,0.024711,0.024711,0.024711,0.024711,0.024711,0.024711,0.024711,0.024711,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251,0.022251]},{"source":"manifold","id":"88xdpllbnd","event_id":"zdhcd2fsyk","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.004287,0.995713],"probability":0.004287,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-30T19:50:57.084000Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00041799999999999997,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":25.000000000000004,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:21.950002Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:03:16.832184Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T09:35:31.483493Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/by-what-year-will-artificial-intell","event_title":"In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?","chart_24h":[0.004705,0.004705,0.004705,0.004705,0.004705,0.004705,0.004705,0.004705,0.004705,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287,0.004287]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/zdhcd2fsyk","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:19:46.592208Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?\" — top market at 50% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}