{"source":"manifold","id":"zg7xJ5ZkJJ4wJPJDPjWO","ticker":null,"slug":"by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre","title":"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?","description":"Related to ACX five year predictions. I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By \"visible break\", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon. \n\nUpdate 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:\n\nA direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:31:04.244000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":655879.0633301547,"volume_24hr":50.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.166604995727539,"normalized_volume":67.34090423583984,"liquidity":5210.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.38,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?","top_outcome_probability":0.38,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":50.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:32:49.337989Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:32:49.337989Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre","chart_24h":[0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"zg7xJ5ZkJJ4wJPJDPjWO","event_id":"zg7xJ5ZkJJ4wJPJDPjWO","slug":"by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre","question":"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Related to ACX five year predictions. I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By \"visible break\", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon. \n\nUpdate 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:\n\nA direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.38,0.62],"probability":0.38,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:31:04.244000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":655879.0633301547,"volume_24hr":50.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":50.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.166604995727539,"normalized_volume":67.34090423583984,"liquidity":5210.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:31:03.751144Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:31:03.751144Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre","event_title":"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?","chart_24h":[0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/zg7xJ5ZkJJ4wJPJDPjWO","as_of":"2026-06-10T16:37:54.295343Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?\" — top market at 38% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}