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I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By \"visible break\", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon. \n\nUpdate 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:\n\nA direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:31:04.244000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":704568.7550616228,"volume_24hr":1406.4106538862675,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.26954650878906,"normalized_volume":66.70008850097656,"liquidity":5210.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","acx","economics-default","scott-alexanders-5-year-predictions","global-macro"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.290194,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?","top_outcome_probability":0.290194,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.00019400000000002748,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-4137.9742640322165,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:09:46.305281Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre","chart_24h":[0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.294563,0.294563,0.3,0.283568,0.283568,0.283568,0.283568,0.283568,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"zg7xJ5ZkJJ4wJPJDPjWO","event_id":"zg7xJ5ZkJJ4wJPJDPjWO","slug":"by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre","question":"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Related to ACX five year predictions. I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By \"visible break\", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon. \n\nUpdate 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:\n\nA direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.290194,0.709806],"probability":0.290194,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-20T22:31:04.244000Z","end_date":"2028-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":704568.7550616228,"volume_24hr":1406.4106538862675,"prob_24h_change":0.00019400000000002748,"volume_24h_change":-4137.9742640322165,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.26954650878906,"normalized_volume":66.70008850097656,"liquidity":5210.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:14.150689Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:07:14.150689Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre","event_title":"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?","chart_24h":[0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.294563,0.294563,0.3,0.283568,0.283568,0.283568,0.283568,0.283568,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194,0.290194]}]}