{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/zp5gqQQA2h","as_of":"2026-11-03T05:25:27.368733Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"November 2026 AI model releases\" — 26 markets; highest \"Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)\" at 98% as of 2026-11-03 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/zp5gqQQA2h","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/prismatic/november-2026-ai-model-releases"},"source":"manifold","id":"zp5gqQQA2h","ticker":"zp5gqQQA2h","slug":"november-2026-ai-model-releases","title":"November 2026 AI model releases","description":"This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during November 2026 (UTC).\n\nWhat counts as a release\nA model is released on the first day any member of the public in the U.S. can use it through an official channel without an invite: a self-serve API key, the lab’s web or app interface, or a download. Paid plans count if anyone can sign up. These do not count: waitlists, allowlists, trusted-tester programs, partner-only, enterprise-only or sector-limited access (for example, cyber-defender-only programs), and announcements or benchmark posts on their own. Models that are available only in the U.S. (e.g. Claude Fable 5) still count as widely available.\n\nWhat counts as a model (scope)\nOnly general-purpose language and multimodal reasoning models count. Speech/voice, text-to-speech, speech recognition, OCR, embedding, image, video, music, world-model and other domain-specific models do not count, even if released by a lab listed as “(or any X model)”. Exception: the answer “Any Nano Banana model” counts any new Nano Banana model, even though it is an image model, and it resolves on Nano Banana releases only.\n\nSubvariants and tiers\nSubvariants are model releases that share the same tier name and qualify as a model under the scope rule above (e.g. Flash Preview and Flash Instant count for “Gemini 3.1 Flash”; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for “GPT-5.5”). Non-text subvariants (e.g. Flash Live, Flash Image, a voice or realtime audio edition) do not count for the tier, even though they share its name. The only exception is “Any Nano Banana model”, as described above. Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do not count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I’ll use the official model name the company uses to classify it. If a lab renames or merges tiers, I’ll N/A the affected answer and create replacement options.\n\nVersion numbers\nIf a lab skips versions, a release at or above the listed version in the same tier counts for the listed answer. For example, Fable 5.2 counts for Claude Fable 5.5, and GPT-6.5 Terra counts for GPT-6.2 Terra. A higher version never counts for a different tier (an Opus release does not count for Sonnet). For Gemini families specifically, 3.x subvariants count for the Gemini 4 options, so a Gemini 3.9 Flash release counts for Gemini 4 Flash.\n\n“(or any X model)” answers\nFor answers labelled “(or any <lab> model)”, any new qualifying model (per the scope rule) that the lab itself releases counts, whatever its product line or version number. For answers that name a specific line without “or any” (for example Muse Spark, Muse Wonder, GPT-6.1 Astra, Claude Opus 5.6, Gemini 4 Flash), only that line counts. Models built by third parties on a lab’s weights do not count.\n\nOther notes\nFaster-throughput variants of an already released model do not count (for example, GLM-5.3-Prime).\n\nPlease ask for clarifications. I can’t think of everything, and I want to avoid making biased decisions. Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity.\n\nPrevious Months:\n\n@/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases \n\n@/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases-2I5QOgzd9Q \n@/prismatic/october-2026-ai-model-releases \n\nNote on Gemini 4 Carbon: the October 28 cyber-defender-only rollout does not count for this market. “Gemini 4 Carbon (general availability)” resolves YES on the first day Carbon meets the release test 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