{"source":"myriad","id":"10197","ticker":null,"slug":"will-americans-receive-tariff-stimulus-checks-by-mid-2026","title":"Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by mid-2026?","description":"**Market Dates:**\n\n- **Market Period:** From market publication until June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.\n- **Market Closes:** June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.\n- **Resolution Time:** June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, or earlier if an outcome is reached.\n\n**Resolution Criteria:**\n\n- The market resolves to “**Yes**” if Americans receive stimulus checks before the Resolution Time.\n- The market resolves to “**No**” if not.\n\n**Resolution Details:**\n\n- To qualify for a “Yes” resolution the stimulus checks must be at least in part **directly attributable to tariff revenue**.\n- The distribution of the stimulus checks must begin before the Resolution Time and they must be be **intended for a broad distribution (at least 1 million Americans)**.\n- To proof the intent and start of the distribution, the White House communication channels will be used as a primary resolution source. In cases of dispute or unavailability of data, the following secondary sources may be used to confirm: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), [APNews](https://apnews.com/) or [PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/).\n\n**Cancelation (Invalidity) Conditions:**\n\n- The resolution sources become unavailable, unreliable, or experiences major changes preventing verification.\n- Any major external factor prevents fair or consistent resolution.\n\nIf canceled, participants may claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on their open positions.","image":"https://cdn.polkamarkets.com/QmYDt4sGB1rE73e1iKxVqPrscu3GTmRtsCcz8KiscFQHfw","icon":"https://imagedelivery.net/YN1-rdnufJQJCgu3i1CbVw/7693ad44-6a00-439e-7af7-d66054314c00/public","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-01T20:23:03Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15927.65839215,"volume_24hr":69.73337501,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.336158752441406,"normalized_volume":28.94169044494629,"liquidity":1926.73583823,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":["Economy","Politics"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.07107477,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by mid-2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.07107477,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-07T18:24:24.025447Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T18:24:24.025447Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://myriad.markets/markets/will-americans-receive-tariff-stimulus-checks-by-mid-2026","chart_24h":[0.07107477,0.07107477],"markets":[{"source":"myriad","id":"10197","event_id":"10197","slug":"will-americans-receive-tariff-stimulus-checks-by-mid-2026","question":"Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by mid-2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"**Market Dates:**\n\n- **Market Period:** From market publication until June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.\n- **Market Closes:** June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.\n- **Resolution Time:** June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, or earlier if an outcome is reached.\n\n**Resolution Criteria:**\n\n- The market resolves to “**Yes**” if Americans receive stimulus checks before the Resolution Time.\n- The market resolves to “**No**” if not.\n\n**Resolution Details:**\n\n- To qualify for a “Yes” resolution the stimulus checks must be at least in part **directly attributable to tariff revenue**.\n- The distribution of the stimulus checks must begin before the Resolution Time and they must be be **intended for a broad distribution (at least 1 million Americans)**.\n- To proof the intent and start of the distribution, the White House communication channels will be used as a primary resolution source. In cases of dispute or unavailability of data, the following secondary sources may be used to confirm: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), [APNews](https://apnews.com/) or [PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/).\n\n**Cancelation (Invalidity) Conditions:**\n\n- The resolution sources become unavailable, unreliable, or experiences major changes preventing verification.\n- Any major external factor prevents fair or consistent resolution.\n\nIf canceled, participants may claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on their open positions.","image":"https://cdn.polkamarkets.com/QmYDt4sGB1rE73e1iKxVqPrscu3GTmRtsCcz8KiscFQHfw","icon":"https://imagedelivery.net/YN1-rdnufJQJCgu3i1CbVw/7693ad44-6a00-439e-7af7-d66054314c00/public","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.07107477,0.92892523],"probability":0.07107477,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-01T20:23:03Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15927.65839215,"volume_24hr":69.73337501,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.336158752441406,"normalized_volume":28.94169044494629,"liquidity":1926.73583823,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T23:45:09.500100Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T18:24:20.500610Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://myriad.markets/markets/will-americans-receive-tariff-stimulus-checks-by-mid-2026","event_title":"Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by mid-2026?","chart_24h":[0.07107477,0.07107477]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/myriad/10197","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:29:41.065881Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Myriad): \"Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by mid-2026?\" — top market at 7% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}