{"source":"myriad","id":"27498","ticker":null,"slug":"will-trump-capture-another-president-before-his-birthday-0c402be6-0129-432a-bef8-cc370b6a48ed","title":"Will Trump capture another president before his birthday?","description":"### **Market Dates:**\n\n- **Market Period:** From the publication date to June 13, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n- **Market Close:** June 13, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n- **Resolution Time:** June 13, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or earlier if a “Yes” outcome has been reached.\n\n### **Yes/No Criteria:**\n\n- Resolves to “**Yes**” if the Trump Administration confirms that another president has been placed in custody of the United States of America before Resolution Time.\n- Resolves to “**No**” if not.\n\n### **Resolution Conditions:**\n\n- Another president is considered placed in custody if they are detained and under the control of the U.S. federal government.\n- The person’s freedom of movement must be restricted by federal authority, either through incarceration, detention, or supervised federal control to count towards a potential “Yes” resolution.\n- Any president of any United Nations country will count towards resolution as long as they are the undisputed and currently active leader of their country. Previous presidents, vice-presidents or oppositional leaders that are not currently in the sole power of their country will not count towards a potential “Yes” resolution.\n- The legality aspect of a detention will not be relevant for resolving this market and will therefore not affect the outcome.\n\n### **Resolution Sources:**\n\n- The [White House website](https://www.whitehouse.gov/) will be the primary resolution source for this market.\n- In case the primary resolution source doesn’t report on an event potentially subject to this market, these secondary resolution sources can also be used: the White House official social media accounts, Donald Trump’s official social media accounts, official interviews of the Trump administation or verifiable video footage.\n\n### **Cancellation Conditions:**\n\n- All listed resolution sources become unavailable, unreliable, or experience significant disruptions for prolonged periods.\n- Any circumstance prevents determining the outcome conclusively.\n\nIn the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.","image":"https://cdn.polkamarkets.com/Qma9FAX15kHewT8vm61vykGA9bqQhNdDLvEbQWSp72i3PQ","icon":"https://imagedelivery.net/YN1-rdnufJQJCgu3i1CbVw/255d431f-1bb4-4d90-032b-d1f7032e8000/public","active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-16T18:13:33Z","end_date":"2026-06-14T04:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-14T04:59:00Z","volume":33507.76093707,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.56153869628906,"liquidity":1500.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["Politics"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.02142139,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Trump capture another president before his birthday?","top_outcome_probability":0.02142139,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-15T05:17:52.352210Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-14T05:09:07.754804Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://myriad.markets/markets/will-trump-capture-another-president-before-his-birthday-0c402be6-0129-432a-bef8-cc370b6a48ed","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"myriad","id":"27498","event_id":"27498","slug":"will-trump-capture-another-president-before-his-birthday-0c402be6-0129-432a-bef8-cc370b6a48ed","question":"Will Trump capture another president before his birthday?","group_item_title":null,"description":"### **Market Dates:**\n\n- **Market Period:** From the publication date to June 13, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n- **Market Close:** June 13, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n- **Resolution Time:** June 13, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or earlier if a “Yes” outcome has been reached.\n\n### **Yes/No Criteria:**\n\n- Resolves to “**Yes**” if the Trump Administration confirms that another president has been placed in custody of the United States of America before Resolution Time.\n- Resolves to “**No**” if not.\n\n### **Resolution Conditions:**\n\n- Another president is considered placed in custody if they are detained and under the control of the U.S. federal government.\n- The person’s freedom of movement must be restricted by federal authority, either through incarceration, detention, or supervised federal control to count towards a potential “Yes” resolution.\n- Any president of any United Nations country will count towards resolution as long as they are the undisputed and currently active leader of their country. Previous presidents, vice-presidents or oppositional leaders that are not currently in the sole power of their country will not count towards a potential “Yes” resolution.\n- The legality aspect of a detention will not be relevant for resolving this market and will therefore not affect the outcome.\n\n### **Resolution Sources:**\n\n- The [White House website](https://www.whitehouse.gov/) will be the primary resolution source for this market.\n- In case the primary resolution source doesn’t report on an event potentially subject to this market, these secondary resolution sources can also be used: the White House official social media accounts, Donald Trump’s official social media accounts, official interviews of the Trump administation or verifiable video footage.\n\n### **Cancellation Conditions:**\n\n- All listed resolution sources become unavailable, unreliable, or experience significant disruptions for prolonged periods.\n- Any circumstance prevents determining the outcome conclusively.\n\nIn the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.","image":"https://cdn.polkamarkets.com/Qma9FAX15kHewT8vm61vykGA9bqQhNdDLvEbQWSp72i3PQ","icon":"https://imagedelivery.net/YN1-rdnufJQJCgu3i1CbVw/255d431f-1bb4-4d90-032b-d1f7032e8000/public","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.02142139,0.97857861],"probability":0.02142139,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-16T18:13:33Z","end_date":"2026-06-14T04:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-14T04:59:00Z","volume":33507.76093707,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.56153869628906,"liquidity":1500.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-15T05:17:53.438012Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-14T05:09:07.307658Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://myriad.markets/markets/will-trump-capture-another-president-before-his-birthday-0c402be6-0129-432a-bef8-cc370b6a48ed","event_title":"Will Trump capture another president before his birthday?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/myriad/27498","as_of":"2026-06-17T09:35:06.511024Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Myriad): \"Will Trump capture another president before his birthday?\" — top market at 2% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}