{"source":"opinion","id":"3365","ticker":null,"slug":"will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026","title":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction between January 1st, 2026 00:00 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto\n\nIf Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x7db6acaf6ff17e188b577301df988234836d9901/0x15a31af19d3f9fa339ce35245ff83a050ddacf72972995997ec684cb254aef3e","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-29T16:26:54Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25139065.7765,"volume_24hr":2559.885,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.09564781188965,"normalized_volume":71.44425201416016,"liquidity":0.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Crypto"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.052,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.052,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2207.3635000000004,"updated_at":"2026-07-29T19:34:16.513558Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-29T19:34:16.513558Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.052,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.052,0.052],"markets":[{"source":"opinion","id":"3365","event_id":"3365","slug":"will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026","question":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction between January 1st, 2026 00:00 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto\n\nIf Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x7db6acaf6ff17e188b577301df988234836d9901/0x15a31af19d3f9fa339ce35245ff83a050ddacf72972995997ec684cb254aef3e","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.052,0.948],"probability":0.052,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-29T16:26:54Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25139065.7765,"volume_24hr":2559.885,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":2207.3635000000004,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.095720291137695,"normalized_volume":72.91880798339844,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Crypto"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-29T19:31:42.502434Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-29T19:31:42.502434Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026","event_title":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.052,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.052,0.052]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/opinion/3365","as_of":"2026-07-29T19:36:47.336498Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Opinion): \"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?\" — top market at 5% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}