{"source":"opinion","id":"89","ticker":"89","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","title":"GPT-6 released by…?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://images.opinion.trade/0x18f63f20eead237c83ff75bb7bd2028006fef79d/0xa6aa6ed8c1e41f597d9598409a9e6cd93c8b031c06da555c530321e8e53204eb","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-05T07:12:35Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":"2026-07-01T08:03:59Z","volume":17761280.496,"volume_24hr":15488.9355,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.597625732421875,"normalized_volume":68.33712005615234,"liquidity":null,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Dec 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.57,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-12T11:28:09.648428Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-12T11:28:09.648428Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/gpt-6-released-by","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"opinion","id":"2019","event_id":"89","slug":"gpt-6-released-by-dec-31-2026","question":"Dec 31, 2026","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.57,0.43],"probability":0.57,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-29T18:59:19Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":null,"volume":3432121.978,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":56.43364715576172,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T14:28:07.559440Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T14:28:03.806197Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57]},{"source":"opinion","id":"2018","event_id":"89","slug":"gpt-6-released-by-jun-30-2026","question":"Jun 30, 2026","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.486,0.589],"probability":0.486,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-11-29T18:59:18Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":"2026-07-01T08:03:59Z","volume":1512424.5355,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":50.45488739013672,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-02T08:16:08.101638Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T08:35:39.001167Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"opinion","id":"1544","event_id":"89","slug":"gpt-6-released-by-dec-31-2025","question":"Dec 31, 2025","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.002,0.998],"probability":0.002,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-11-05T07:15:04Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":"2026-01-04T17:24:10Z","volume":10031960.6135,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":64.76496887207031,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:31:03.743820Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:31:03.743820Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"opinion","id":"1545","event_id":"89","slug":"gpt-6-released-by-mar-31-2026","question":"Mar 31, 2026","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.002,0.999],"probability":0.002,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-11-05T07:16:28Z","end_date":null,"closed_time":"2026-04-01T09:53:32Z","volume":2784773.369,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":54.87691116333008,"liquidity":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:31:03.743820Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:31:03.743820Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://www.opinion.trade/market/gpt-6-released-by","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/opinion/89","as_of":"2026-08-05T14:37:10.024673Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Opinion): \"GPT-6 released by…?\" — top market at 57% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}