{"source":"polymarket","id":"1025426","ticker":"holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory","slug":"holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory","title":"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory","description":"A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/makerfield-by-election-winner-1ceiGHP2i4dn.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/makerfield-by-election-winner-1ceiGHP2i4dn.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-14T22:50:27Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":649.967449,"volume_24hr":609.967449,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.689468383789062,"normalized_volume":9.54523754119873,"liquidity":41552.10958,"open_interest":179.09553999999997,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"734","slug":"uk","label":"UK"},{"id":"101319","slug":"starmer","label":"Starmer"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"104846","slug":"uk-elections","label":"UK Elections"},{"id":"105439","slug":"uk-by-elections","label":"UK By-Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Another candidate wins","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-16T03:36:03.229315Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-16T03:36:03.229315Z","added_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:46.941374Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory","chart_24h":[40.0,218.647059,218.647059,218.647059,235.334559,235.334559,235.334559,405.857717,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,584.967449,589.967449,589.967449,629.967449,629.967449,609.967449,609.967449,609.967449],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4571627","event_id":"1025426","slug":"will-the-labour-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-15-percent-or-more","question":"Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?","group_item_title":"Labour 15%+","description":"A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.27,0.73],"probability":0.27,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-14T22:50:27Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":161.32039,"volume_24hr":161.32039,"prob_24h_change":0.04500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":161.32039,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.546751976013184,"normalized_volume":7.599949836730957,"liquidity":2221.6861,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-09-16T02:26:34.310663Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-16T02:26:34.310663Z","added_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-the-labour-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-15-percent-or-more","event_title":"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.225,0.245,0.2,0.145,0.215,0.245,0.175,0.17,0.315,0.34,0.24,0.31,0.22,0.295,0.235,0.285,0.305,0.345,0.285,0.305,0.315,0.355,0.345,0.35,0.34,0.275,0.35,0.275,0.27,0.27,0.27]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4571628","event_id":"1025426","slug":"will-the-labour-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-10-15-percent","question":"Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%?","group_item_title":"Labour 10-15%","description":"A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.235,0.765],"probability":0.235,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-14T22:50:27Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":100.0,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.20500000000000002,"volume_24h_change":20.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.880570888519287,"normalized_volume":6.249053955078125,"liquidity":2450.1233,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-09-16T02:04:16.137673Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-16T02:04:16.137673Z","added_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-the-labour-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-10-15-percent","event_title":"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.44,0.21,0.18,0.415,0.41,0.415,0.41,0.23,0.3,0.39,0.23,0.21,0.26,0.215,0.23,0.225,0.23,0.235,0.235,0.235]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4571630","event_id":"1025426","slug":"will-the-labour-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-0-5-percent","question":"Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 0-5%?","group_item_title":"Labour 0-5%","description":"A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.15,0.85],"probability":0.15,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-14T22:50:27Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":70.0,"volume_24hr":70.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.06,"volume_24h_change":70.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.3981242179870605,"normalized_volume":5.331060886383057,"liquidity":1970.2526,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-09-16T02:26:34.310663Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-16T02:26:34.310663Z","added_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-the-labour-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-0-5-percent","event_title":"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.21,0.205,0.155,0.155,0.205,0.21,0.185,0.18,0.135,0.145,0.165,0.17,0.165,0.16,0.155,0.15]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4571632","event_id":"1025426","slug":"will-the-green-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-5-10-percent","question":"Will the Green candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 5-10%?","group_item_title":"Green 5-10%","description":"A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-14T22:50:27Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.0,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.044999999999999984,"volume_24h_change":60.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.880570888519287,"normalized_volume":4.958113670349121,"liquidity":10290.1299,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-09-16T01:19:48.553773Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-16T01:19:48.553773Z","added_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-the-green-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-5-10-percent","event_title":"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.175,0.18,0.32,0.235,0.17,0.17,0.145,0.275,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.105,0.13,0.135,0.105,0.115,0.11,0.105,0.11,0.13,0.155,0.09,0.095,0.085,0.085,0.135,0.13]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4571633","event_id":"1025426","slug":"will-the-green-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-10-15-percent","question":"Will the Green candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%?","group_item_title":"Green 10-15%","description":"A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-14T22:50:27Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":78.647059,"volume_24hr":78.647059,"prob_24h_change":-0.024999999999999994,"volume_24h_change":78.647059,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.802420616149902,"normalized_volume":5.622395038604736,"liquidity":2007.175,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T21:57:54.061775Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T21:57:54.061775Z","added_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-the-green-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-10-15-percent","event_title":"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.15,0.355,0.265,0.155,0.155,0.135,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.125,0.125,0.125]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4571631","event_id":"1025426","slug":"will-the-green-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-0-5-percent","question":"Will the Green candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 0-5%?","group_item_title":"Green 0-5%","description":"A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.88],"probability":0.12,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-14T22:50:27Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.0,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.07,"volume_24h_change":60.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.880570888519287,"normalized_volume":4.958113670349121,"liquidity":10101.9904,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-09-16T00:55:59.232241Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-16T00:55:59.232241Z","added_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-the-green-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-0-5-percent","event_title":"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.19,0.165,0.26,0.13,0.105,0.15,0.185,0.165,0.14,0.125,0.14,0.105,0.095,0.085,0.135,0.11,0.23,0.205,0.125,0.125,0.105,0.1,0.14,0.085,0.09,0.095,0.09,0.105,0.12]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4571629","event_id":"1025426","slug":"will-the-labour-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-5-10-percent","question":"Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 5-10%?","group_item_title":"Labour 5-10%","description":"A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.09,0.91],"probability":0.09,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-14T22:50:27Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.0,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.04500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":60.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.880570888519287,"normalized_volume":4.958113670349121,"liquidity":10139.8142,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-09-16T02:26:34.310663Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-16T02:26:34.310663Z","added_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-the-labour-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-5-10-percent","event_title":"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.135,0.46,0.41,0.24,0.285,0.235,0.265,0.185,0.215,0.15,0.145,0.395,0.24,0.245,0.09,0.13,0.195,0.12,0.09,0.115,0.11,0.1,0.085,0.09]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4571634","event_id":"1025426","slug":"will-the-green-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-15-percent-or-more","question":"Will the Green candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?","group_item_title":"Green 15%+","description":"A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0325,0.9675],"probability":0.0325,"spread":0.059,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-14T22:50:27Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.0,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.1825,"volume_24h_change":60.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.880570888519287,"normalized_volume":4.958113670349121,"liquidity":1915.65032,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-09-16T02:50:19.586816Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-16T02:50:19.586816Z","added_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-the-green-candidate-win-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-15-percent-or-more","event_title":"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.215,0.23,0.18,0.135,0.12,0.18,0.155,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.055,0.05,0.041,0.0405,0.04,0.0325,0.037,0.0325]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4571635","event_id":"1025426","slug":"will-another-candidate-win-the-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-margin","question":"Will a candidate other than the Labour or Green candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?","group_item_title":"Another candidate wins","description":"A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another candidate wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":1.0,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":null,"end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","added_at":"2026-09-14T23:10:47.000963Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-another-candidate-win-the-holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-margin","event_title":"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1025426","as_of":"2026-09-16T03:52:18.871182Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory\" — top market at 27% probability across 9 outcomes","source_url":null}}