{"source":"polymarket","id":"1030972","ticker":"berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory","slug":"berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory","title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/berlin-state-election-winner-1CAHVXlT8kYr.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/berlin-state-election-winner-1CAHVXlT8kYr.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1125.015392,"volume_24hr":1105.015392,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.76025390625,"normalized_volume":11.227824211120605,"liquidity":96294.65226,"open_interest":1397.114884,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"103724","slug":"berlin","label":"Berlin"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"101206","slug":"world-elections","label":"World Elections"},{"id":"104119","slug":"german-elections","label":"German Elections"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"},{"id":"100686","slug":"margin-of-victory","label":"Margin of Victory"},{"id":"105438","slug":"international-election-props","label":"International Election Props"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Linke 2-5%","top_outcome_probability":0.29,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.09000000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":356.531593,"updated_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.443211Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.443211Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.817081Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory","chart_24h":[20.0,164.461539,334.061539,334.061539,348.347254,348.347254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,507.447254,487.447254,487.447254,487.447254,487.447254,487.447254,487.447254,1063.815392,1083.815392,1105.015392,1105.015392,1105.015392],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603202","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-linke-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-2-5","question":"Will Linke win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 2-5%?","group_item_title":"Linke 2-5%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.29,0.71],"probability":0.29,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":396.53159300000004,"volume_24hr":396.531593,"prob_24h_change":-0.09000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":356.531593,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.368171691894531,"normalized_volume":10.510329246520996,"liquidity":3059.9594,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-linke-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-2-5","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.38,0.38,0.365,0.36,0.315,0.325,0.315,0.31,0.315,0.31,0.31,0.305]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603200","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-linke-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-0-2","question":"Will Linke win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 0-2%?","group_item_title":"Linke 0-2%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.245,0.755],"probability":0.245,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":71.805186,"volume_24hr":51.805186,"prob_24h_change":-0.07,"volume_24h_change":31.805186,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.3106231689453125,"normalized_volume":5.394045829772949,"liquidity":2103.0864,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-linke-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-0-2","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.315,0.285,0.36,0.315,0.32,0.415,0.345,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.315,0.32,0.315,0.3,0.295,0.29,0.275,0.265]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603209","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-cdu-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-0-2","question":"Will CDU win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 0-2%?","group_item_title":"CDU 0-2%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.18,0.82],"probability":0.18,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25.81,"volume_24hr":25.81,"prob_24h_change":-0.05499999999999999,"volume_24h_change":25.81,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.33812141418457,"normalized_volume":3.173339366912842,"liquidity":10336.3717,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T10:24:39.850108Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T10:24:39.850108Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-cdu-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-0-2","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.235,0.17,0.185,0.17,0.185,0.25,0.26,0.255,0.285,0.25,0.175,0.18,0.185,0.18]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603219","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-afd-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-0-2","question":"Will AfD win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 0-2%?","group_item_title":"AfD 0-2%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1755,0.8245],"probability":0.1755,"spread":0.345,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25.81,"volume_24hr":25.81,"prob_24h_change":-0.05450000000000002,"volume_24h_change":25.81,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.33812141418457,"normalized_volume":3.173339366912842,"liquidity":6232.83896,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-afd-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-0-2","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.23,0.095,0.175,0.16,0.165,0.23,0.03,0.023,0.022,0.0225,0.023,0.023,0.022,0.0235,0.023,0.022,0.0225,0.023,0.024,0.022,0.0225,0.023,0.023,0.024,0.0215,0.021,0.0215]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603212","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-cdu-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-2-5","question":"Will CDU win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 2-5%?","group_item_title":"CDU 2-5%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47.018181999999996,"volume_24hr":47.018181999999996,"prob_24h_change":-0.04000000000000001,"volume_24h_change":47.018181999999996,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.0118727684021,"normalized_volume":4.3976898193359375,"liquidity":2881.2721,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-cdu-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-2-5","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.17,0.095,0.195,0.15,0.085,0.295,0.155,0.14,0.155,0.205,0.165,0.165,0.145,0.14,0.195,0.175,0.175,0.14,0.15,0.145,0.11,0.115,0.12,0.125]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603204","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-linke-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-5-10","question":"Will Linke win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 5-10%?","group_item_title":"Linke 5-10%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.115,0.885],"probability":0.115,"spread":0.23,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.894716,"volume_24hr":60.894715999999995,"prob_24h_change":0.02500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":60.894715999999995,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.826103210449219,"normalized_volume":4.993299961090088,"liquidity":2026.9109,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-linke-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-5-10","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.09,0.135,0.105,0.135,0.13,0.125,0.14,0.14,0.135,0.145,0.255,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.135,0.135,0.125,0.205,0.13,0.12,0.115,0.11,0.06,0.215,0.065,0.075,0.205]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603214","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-cdu-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-5-10","question":"Will CDU win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 5-10%?","group_item_title":"CDU 5-10%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.09,0.91],"probability":0.09,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":163.21,"volume_24hr":163.21,"prob_24h_change":0.009999999999999995,"volume_24h_change":163.21,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.436837196350098,"normalized_volume":7.634554862976074,"liquidity":9197.3299,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T11:26:49.153675Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T11:26:49.153675Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-cdu-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-5-10","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.08,0.085,0.095,0.065,0.07,0.08,0.16,0.12,0.125,0.105,0.095,0.09]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603207","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-linke-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-10-plus","question":"Will Linke win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 10% or more?","group_item_title":"Linke 10%+","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.036,0.964],"probability":0.036,"spread":0.068,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":121.095715,"volume_24hr":121.095715,"prob_24h_change":-0.039,"volume_24h_change":121.095715,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.259445190429688,"normalized_volume":6.77329158782959,"liquidity":2572.7409,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-linke-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-10-plus","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.075,0.05,0.045,0.036,0.036,0.0365,0.033,0.032,0.0455,0.0325,0.0395,0.0365]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603221","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-afd-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-2-5","question":"Will AfD win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 2-5%?","group_item_title":"AfD 2-5%","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0215,0.9785],"probability":0.0215,"spread":0.037,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25.81,"volume_24hr":25.81,"prob_24h_change":-0.17350000000000002,"volume_24h_change":25.81,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.33812141418457,"normalized_volume":3.173339366912842,"liquidity":14846.82592,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T12:32:10.833149Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T12:32:10.833149Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-afd-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-2-5","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.195,0.1,0.18,0.195,0.17,0.185,0.03,0.023,0.022,0.022,0.023,0.0235,0.023,0.0235,0.022,0.023,0.023,0.0225,0.022,0.023,0.022,0.023,0.024,0.0235,0.0215,0.021,0.0215]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603224","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-afd-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-5-or-more","question":"Will AfD win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 5% or more?","group_item_title":"AfD 5%+","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0215,0.9785],"probability":0.0215,"spread":0.037,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25.81,"volume_24hr":25.81,"prob_24h_change":-0.0535,"volume_24h_change":25.81,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.33812141418457,"normalized_volume":3.173339366912842,"liquidity":11058.08325,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T12:55:27.324974Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T12:55:27.324974Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-afd-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-5-or-more","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.075,0.075,0.022,0.0225,0.022,0.022,0.023,0.0235,0.022,0.0235,0.0225,0.022,0.023,0.023,0.022,0.023,0.022,0.0235,0.0235,0.023,0.0215,0.021,0.0215]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603217","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-cdu-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-10-plus","question":"Will CDU win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 10% or more?","group_item_title":"CDU 10%+","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.019,0.981],"probability":0.019,"spread":0.032,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":70.81,"volume_24hr":70.81,"prob_24h_change":-0.046,"volume_24h_change":70.81,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.3266801834106445,"normalized_volume":5.359472751617432,"liquidity":11610.12548,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T13:44:59.622993Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T13:44:59.622993Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-cdu-win-the-2026-berlin-state-election-by-a-margin-of-10-plus","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.065,0.06,0.021,0.0215,0.021,0.0215,0.021,0.0215,0.021,0.0215,0.0215,0.0205,0.0195,0.019,0.02,0.019]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4603226","event_id":"1030972","slug":"will-a-party-other-than-linke-cdu-or-afd-win-the-most-votes-in-the-2026-berlin-state-election","question":"Will a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD win the most votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?","group_item_title":"Another party wins","description":"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.\n\nValid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Another party wins\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.018,0.982],"probability":0.018,"spread":0.032,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-16T02:22:36Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":90.41,"volume_24hr":90.41,"prob_24h_change":-0.127,"volume_24h_change":90.41,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.177435874938965,"normalized_volume":5.9818010330200195,"liquidity":10617.38132,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T14:08:50.851926Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T02:28:25.899794Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-election-vote-share-margin-of-victory/will-a-party-other-than-linke-cdu-or-afd-win-the-most-votes-in-the-2026-berlin-state-election","event_title":"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory","chart_24h":[0.145,0.085,0.085,0.021,0.021,0.0205,0.021,0.0205,0.021,0.0205,0.021,0.0205,0.021,0.021,0.0195,0.0195,0.0185,0.02,0.019]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1030972","as_of":"2026-09-17T14:18:05.606574Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Berlin State Election Vote Share Margin of Victory\" — top market at 29% probability across 12 outcomes","source_url":null}}