{"source":"polymarket","id":"1038469","ticker":"houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-20260916","slug":"houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-20260916","title":"Houthi military action against Mecca by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Mecca by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Mecca. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Mecca do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\n\"Mecca\" refers to any areas within the Haram boundary of Makkah, the sacred precinct surrounding the Grand Mosque as delimited by the boundary markers (Ansab al-Haram) established and maintained by Saudi authorities. Mecca's airspace is not encompassed. A strike whose point of impact cannot be clearly established to lie within this area does not qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-20260916--iOX9Kewiv6C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-20260916--iOX9Kewiv6C.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T14:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T20:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1541.1340830000001,"volume_24hr":1541.1340830000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.764616012573242,"normalized_volume":12.254846572875977,"liquidity":28401.2665,"open_interest":773.74,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"738","slug":"yemen","label":"Yemen"},{"id":"582","slug":"houthis","label":"Houthis"},{"id":"193","slug":"military","label":"Military"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"308","slug":"saudi-arabia","label":"Saudi Arabia"},{"id":"464","slug":"military-action","label":"Military Actions"},{"id":"104007","slug":"military-strikes","label":"Military Strikes"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.39999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":867.8440830000001,"updated_at":"2026-09-17T23:55:43.151436Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T23:55:43.151436Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T15:12:38.335745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-20260916","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,41.51,41.51,81.51,572.5,626.27,994.34,994.34,1014.34,1014.34,1089.8500000000001,1089.8500000000001,1541.1340830000001],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4640132","event_id":"1038469","slug":"houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-december-31-2026-20260916","question":"Houthi military action against Mecca by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Mecca by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Mecca. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Mecca do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\n\"Mecca\" refers to any areas within the Haram boundary of Makkah, the sacred precinct surrounding the Grand Mosque as delimited by the boundary markers (Ansab al-Haram) established and maintained by Saudi authorities. Mecca's airspace is not encompassed. A strike whose point of impact cannot be clearly established to lie within this area does not qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T14:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T20:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":867.8440830000001,"volume_24hr":867.8440830000001,"prob_24h_change":-0.39999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":867.8440830000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.852190017700195,"normalized_volume":13.435738563537598,"liquidity":9083.2421,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T23:55:43.261606Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T23:55:43.261606Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T15:12:38.820259Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-20260916/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-december-31-2026-20260916","event_title":"Houthi military action against Mecca by...?","chart_24h":[0.485,0.485,0.38,0.225,0.065,0.08,0.14,0.145,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4640131","event_id":"1038469","slug":"houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-october-31-2026-20260916","question":"Houthi military action against Mecca by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Mecca by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Mecca. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Mecca do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\n\"Mecca\" refers to any areas within the Haram boundary of Makkah, the sacred precinct surrounding the Grand Mosque as delimited by the boundary markers (Ansab al-Haram) established and maintained by Saudi authorities. Mecca's airspace is not encompassed. A strike whose point of impact cannot be clearly established to lie within this area does not qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.075,0.925],"probability":0.075,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T14:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T20:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":347.43,"volume_24hr":347.43,"prob_24h_change":-0.41,"volume_24h_change":347.43,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.356728553771973,"normalized_volume":10.052409172058105,"liquidity":9756.8468,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T23:55:43.261606Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T23:55:43.261606Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T15:12:38.820259Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-20260916/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-october-31-2026-20260916","event_title":"Houthi military action against Mecca by...?","chart_24h":[0.485,0.46,0.485,0.105,0.1,0.105,0.065,0.075,0.075,0.075]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4640130","event_id":"1038469","slug":"houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-september-30-2026-20260916","question":"Houthi military action against Mecca by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Mecca by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Mecca. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Mecca do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\n\"Mecca\" refers to any areas within the Haram boundary of Makkah, the sacred precinct surrounding the Grand Mosque as delimited by the boundary markers (Ansab al-Haram) established and maintained by Saudi authorities. Mecca's airspace is not encompassed. A strike whose point of impact cannot be clearly established to lie within this area does not qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.055,0.945],"probability":0.055,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T14:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T20:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":380.67999999999995,"volume_24hr":380.68,"prob_24h_change":-0.43,"volume_24h_change":380.68,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.775928497314453,"normalized_volume":10.367902755737305,"liquidity":9419.3176,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T23:55:43.261606Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T23:55:43.261606Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T15:12:38.820259Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-20260916/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-september-30-2026-20260916","event_title":"Houthi military action against Mecca by...?","chart_24h":[0.485,0.425,0.415,0.405,0.055,0.065,0.065,0.07,0.075,0.075,0.055]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1038469","as_of":"2026-09-18T00:30:14.016687Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Houthi military action against Mecca by...?\" — top market at 8% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}