{"source":"polymarket","id":"1039003","ticker":"shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt","slug":"shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt","title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:16Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1814.210183,"volume_24hr":1834.210183,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.66921615600586,"normalized_volume":12.805224418640137,"liquidity":1622.792,"open_interest":905.400183,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104139","slug":"hormuz","label":"Hormuz"},{"id":"104134","slug":"tanker","label":"tanker"},{"id":"193","slug":"military","label":"Military"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"September 17","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:11.705197Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:11.705197Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.767838Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt","chart_24h":[40.0,140.0,140.0,750.689656,956.689656,1201.689656,1289.689656,1478.689656,1498.689656,1658.689656,1834.210183],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642547","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-22-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 22, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 22","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.37,0.63],"probability":0.37,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:19Z","end_date":"2026-09-22T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":458.0,"volume_24hr":458.0,"prob_24h_change":0.10999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":458.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.644161224365234,"normalized_volume":11.021344184875488,"liquidity":161.7156,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-22-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.26,0.52,0.515,0.26,0.27,0.41,0.2,0.275,0.4,0.38,0.37]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642544","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-19-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 19, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 19","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.355,0.645],"probability":0.355,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-19T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":91.710527,"volume_24hr":91.710527,"prob_24h_change":0.03999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":91.710527,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.997886657714844,"normalized_volume":6.019289970397949,"liquidity":109.8311,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-19-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.315,0.275,0.285,0.285,0.32,0.375,0.35,0.375,0.345,0.35,0.355]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642548","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-23-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 23, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 23","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.355,0.645],"probability":0.355,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:19Z","end_date":"2026-09-23T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":132.0,"volume_24hr":132.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.365,"volume_24h_change":112.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.323047637939453,"normalized_volume":7.016619682312012,"liquidity":163.8852,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T00:53:53.591592Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T00:53:53.591592Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-23-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.72,0.53,0.18,0.34,0.35,0.355]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642545","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-20-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 20, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 20","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.33,0.67],"probability":0.33,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:16Z","end_date":"2026-09-20T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":141.689656,"volume_24hr":161.689656,"prob_24h_change":-0.185,"volume_24h_change":141.689656,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.107142448425293,"normalized_volume":7.219867706298828,"liquidity":155.4058,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T22:36:30.797667Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T22:36:30.797667Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-20-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.515,0.505,0.29,0.32,0.335,0.33]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642546","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-21-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 21","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.31,0.69],"probability":0.31,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:16Z","end_date":"2026-09-21T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":930.81,"volume_24hr":930.81,"prob_24h_change":-0.21000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":930.81,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.223243713378906,"normalized_volume":13.714997291564941,"liquidity":219.0273,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-21-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.52,0.52,0.515,0.295,0.34,0.375,0.36,0.295,0.3,0.31]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642543","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-18-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 18, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 18","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.295,0.705],"probability":0.295,"spread":0.43,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-18T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.0,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":0.09499999999999997,"volume_24h_change":60.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.587891578674316,"normalized_volume":4.958113670349121,"liquidity":61.5424,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-18-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.2,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.495,0.285,0.295]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642542","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-17-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 17, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 17","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":1.0,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-17T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-17-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642549","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-24-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 24, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 24","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.285,0.715],"probability":0.285,"spread":0.45,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:19Z","end_date":"2026-09-24T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.019999999999999962,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":36.5191,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-24-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.265,0.275,0.17,0.15,0.285,0.285,0.265,0.17,0.265,0.285]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642550","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-25-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 25, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 25","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.285,0.715],"probability":0.285,"spread":0.45,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:19Z","end_date":"2026-09-25T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":36.5798,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-25-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.285,0.29,0.29,0.275,0.265,0.27,0.285,0.165,0.285,0.265,0.285]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642551","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-26-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 26, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 26","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.285,0.715],"probability":0.285,"spread":0.45,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:19Z","end_date":"2026-09-26T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.024999999999999967,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":60.4096,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-26-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.26,0.28,0.16,0.14,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.28,0.285]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642552","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-27-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 27","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.285,0.715],"probability":0.285,"spread":0.45,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:20Z","end_date":"2026-09-27T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.024999999999999967,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":36.5398,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T00:53:53.591592Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T00:53:53.591592Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-27-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.26,0.275,0.295,0.265,0.27,0.3,0.285,0.285,0.28,0.285]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642553","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-28-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 28","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.275,0.725],"probability":0.275,"spread":0.45,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:19Z","end_date":"2026-09-28T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":36.1593,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-28-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.26,0.28,0.285,0.265,0.27,0.285,0.27,0.275,0.27,0.275]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642555","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-30-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.27,0.73],"probability":0.27,"spread":0.46,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:18Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":81.123,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T01:15:12.793529Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-30-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.275,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.285,0.275,0.285,0.16,0.27]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4642554","event_id":"1039003","slug":"shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-29-2026-20260917","question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 29, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 29","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.\n\nNo attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.\n\nAttacks on military vessels will not be considered.\n\nMissile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.\n\nSeize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.\n\nQualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.24,0.76],"probability":0.24,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-17T17:58:20Z","end_date":"2026-09-29T19:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.03500000000000003,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":298.997,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-18T00:53:53.591592Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-18T00:53:53.591592Z","added_at":"2026-09-17T18:09:37.859745Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-onptptpt/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-september-29-2026-20260917","event_title":"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?","chart_24h":[0.275,0.29,0.29,0.265,0.26,0.23,0.235,0.24]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1039003","as_of":"2026-09-18T01:28:14.408687Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?\" — top market at 31% probability across 14 outcomes","source_url":null}}