{"source":"polymarket","id":"1045448","ticker":"openai-or-anthropic-announces-recursive-self-improvement-by","slug":"openai-or-anthropic-announces-recursive-self-improvement-by","title":"OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRecursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/g-7b367ede47.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/g-7b367ede47.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-18T23:59:30Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1379.700974,"volume_24hr":839.3022,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.495088577270508,"normalized_volume":11.885892868041992,"liquidity":1146.6898,"open_interest":1153.574306,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"105581","slug":"ai-benchmarks","label":"AI Benchmarks"},{"id":"106206","slug":"aiachievements","label":"AI Achievements"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.26,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.13,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":158.99664399999995,"updated_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:52.534665Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:52.534665Z","added_at":"2026-09-19T00:31:48.671954Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/openai-or-anthropic-announces-recursive-self-improvement-by","chart_24h":[540.398774,540.398774,540.398774,540.398774,540.398774,540.398774,540.398774,450.99877399999997,450.99877399999997,450.998774,450.998774,450.998774,1140.090976,1140.090976,1134.53542,829.78542,896.452088,896.452088,896.452088,845.3422,845.3422,845.3422,845.3422,845.3422,839.0922,839.0922,839.0922,839.3022,839.3022,839.3022,839.3022],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4713393","event_id":"1045448","slug":"will-openai-or-anthropic-announce-recursive-self-improvement-by-december-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRecursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/g-7b367ede47.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/g-7b367ede47.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.28,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-18T23:59:30Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":695.607756,"volume_24hr":427.30219999999997,"prob_24h_change":0.13,"volume_24h_change":158.99664399999995,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.944353103637695,"normalized_volume":12.572733879089355,"liquidity":345.7505,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:52.903262Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:52.903262Z","added_at":"2026-09-19T00:31:48.746097Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/openai-or-anthropic-announces-recursive-self-improvement-by/will-openai-or-anthropic-announce-recursive-self-improvement-by-december-31-2026","event_title":"OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?","chart_24h":[0.13,0.125,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.065,0.075,0.055,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.285,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.27]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4713392","event_id":"1045448","slug":"will-openai-or-anthropic-announce-recursive-self-improvement-by-october-31-2026","question":"Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRecursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/g-7b367ede47.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/g-7b367ede47.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.055,0.945],"probability":0.055,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-18T23:59:31Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":684.093218,"volume_24hr":412.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.04,"volume_24h_change":172.90678200000002,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.753477096557617,"normalized_volume":12.50879192352295,"liquidity":989.4584,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T11:32:32.181719Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T11:32:32.181719Z","added_at":"2026-09-19T00:31:48.746097Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/openai-or-anthropic-announces-recursive-self-improvement-by/will-openai-or-anthropic-announce-recursive-self-improvement-by-october-31-2026","event_title":"OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?","chart_24h":[0.095,0.095,0.095,0.065,0.055,0.055,0.055]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1045448","as_of":"2026-09-20T19:51:42.513990Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?\" — top market at 26% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}