{"source":"polymarket","id":"1061020","ticker":"what-category-will-hurricane-polo-reach","slug":"what-category-will-hurricane-polo-reach","title":"How strong will Hurricane Polo be?","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.\n\nThe category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.\n\nWind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.\n\nIf the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.\n\nA reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-21T21:11:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3546.418698,"volume_24hr":2377.553883,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.437292098999023,"normalized_volume":15.190237045288086,"liquidity":10285.01734,"open_interest":1677.5178630000003,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"102023","slug":"hurricane","label":"hurricane"},{"id":"102186","slug":"hurricane-season","label":"Hurricane Season"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Category 5","top_outcome_probability":0.82,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.615,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":402.4,"updated_at":"2026-09-22T09:13:27.319268Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-22T09:13:27.319268Z","added_at":"2026-09-21T21:32:52.680928Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-category-will-hurricane-polo-reach","chart_24h":[0.0,20.0,80.0,80.0,80.0,80.0,80.0,80.0,131.354633,131.354633,341.954633,341.954633,868.3006829999999,1160.300683,1373.403883,1393.403883,1744.413883,2377.553883],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4823258","event_id":"1061020","slug":"will-hurricane-polo-peak-at-category-5","question":"Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 5?","group_item_title":"Category 5","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.\n\nThe category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.\n\nWind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.\n\nIf the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.\n\nA reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.82,0.18],"probability":0.82,"spread":0.16,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-21T21:11:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1189.954115,"volume_24hr":402.4,"prob_24h_change":0.615,"volume_24h_change":402.4,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.314014434814453,"normalized_volume":14.717111587524414,"liquidity":568.4551,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-22T09:13:27.489133Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-22T09:13:27.489133Z","added_at":"2026-09-21T21:32:52.709218Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-category-will-hurricane-polo-reach/will-hurricane-polo-peak-at-category-5","event_title":"How strong will Hurricane Polo be?","chart_24h":[0.19,0.27,0.335,0.495,0.515,0.37,0.49,0.515,0.51,0.715,0.705,0.625,0.675,0.68,0.795,0.81]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4823257","event_id":"1061020","slug":"will-hurricane-polo-peak-at-category-4","question":"Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 4?","group_item_title":"Category 4","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.\n\nThe category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.\n\nWind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.\n\nIf the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.\n\nA reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.15,0.85],"probability":0.15,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-21T21:11:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":322.57,"volume_24hr":322.57,"prob_24h_change":-0.11500000000000002,"volume_24h_change":322.57,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.281193733215332,"normalized_volume":9.799773216247559,"liquidity":809.2314,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-22T08:36:52.267122Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-22T08:36:52.267122Z","added_at":"2026-09-21T21:32:52.709218Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-category-will-hurricane-polo-reach/will-hurricane-polo-peak-at-category-4","event_title":"How strong will Hurricane Polo be?","chart_24h":[0.265,0.885,0.41,0.5,0.485,0.455,0.525,0.515,0.475,0.435,0.255,0.245,0.25,0.175,0.15]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4823255","event_id":"1061020","slug":"will-hurricane-polo-peak-at-category-2","question":"Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 2?","group_item_title":"Category 2","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.\n\nThe category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.\n\nWind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.\n\nIf the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.\n\nA reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.025,0.975],"probability":0.025,"spread":0.046,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-21T21:11:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":352.865633,"volume_24hr":352.865633,"prob_24h_change":-0.23,"volume_24h_change":352.865633,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.695732116699219,"normalized_volume":10.105648040771484,"liquidity":2265.72827,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-22T08:18:42.694185Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-22T08:18:42.694185Z","added_at":"2026-09-21T21:32:52.709218Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-category-will-hurricane-polo-reach/will-hurricane-polo-peak-at-category-2","event_title":"How strong will Hurricane Polo be?","chart_24h":[0.255,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.0305,0.029,0.0285,0.0295,0.029,0.025,0.025]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4823256","event_id":"1061020","slug":"will-hurricane-polo-peak-at-category-3","question":"Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 3?","group_item_title":"Category 3","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.\n\nThe category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.\n\nWind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.\n\nIf the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.\n\nA reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.018,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-21T21:11:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1208.71825,"volume_24hr":1208.71825,"prob_24h_change":-0.16999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":1208.71825,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.033588409423828,"normalized_volume":14.78215217590332,"liquidity":3680.10547,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-22T08:18:42.694185Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-22T08:18:42.694185Z","added_at":"2026-09-21T21:32:52.709218Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-category-will-hurricane-polo-reach/will-hurricane-polo-peak-at-category-3","event_title":"How strong will Hurricane Polo be?","chart_24h":[0.18,0.235,0.255,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.215,0.175,0.065,0.06,0.025,0.015,0.011,0.011,0.0105,0.01]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4823254","event_id":"1061020","slug":"will-hurricane-polo-peak-at-category-1-or-weaker","question":"Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 1 or weaker?","group_item_title":"Category 1 or weaker","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.\n\nThe category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.\n\nWind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.\n\nIf the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.\n\nA reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0085,0.9915],"probability":0.0085,"spread":0.015,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-21T21:11:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":472.3107,"volume_24hr":91.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.2465,"volume_24h_change":91.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.129985809326172,"normalized_volume":11.132037162780762,"liquidity":2632.4979,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-22T08:18:42.694185Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-22T08:18:42.694185Z","added_at":"2026-09-21T21:32:52.709218Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-category-will-hurricane-polo-reach/will-hurricane-polo-peak-at-category-1-or-weaker","event_title":"How strong will Hurricane Polo be?","chart_24h":[0.255,0.135,0.125,0.105,0.095,0.1,0.01,0.009,0.009,0.0095,0.009,0.0085,0.0085]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1061020","as_of":"2026-09-22T09:14:21.443596Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How strong will Hurricane Polo be?\" — top market at 1% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}