{"source":"polymarket","id":"1065849","ticker":"us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026","slug":"us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026","title":"U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nThe general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nItem specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).\n\nOnly tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-22T20:05:43Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2528.74982,"volume_24hr":1330.531504,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.15141487121582,"normalized_volume":13.95747184753418,"liquidity":21506.61954,"open_interest":805.221654,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"103865","slug":"ieepa","label":"IEEPA"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"101758","slug":"tariffs","label":"Tariffs"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101761","slug":"trade-war","label":"Trade War"},{"id":"100188","slug":"supreme-court","label":"Supreme Court "}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"5–15%","top_outcome_probability":0.55,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.24000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":228.760062,"updated_at":"2026-09-25T21:03:31.184398Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-25T21:03:31.184398Z","added_at":"2026-09-22T20:06:24.193731Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026","chart_24h":[740.683479,740.683479,411.683579,411.683579,411.683579,411.68357899999995,411.68357899999995,411.683579,462.093579,520.233579,520.233579,520.233579,520.233579,520.233579,520.233579,520.233579,520.233579,570.533579,518.258682,627.758682,640.262016,643.442016,1545.773127,1651.670186,1652.050186,1652.050186,1354.48434,1354.48434,1354.18434,1341.26434,1341.26434,1341.26434,1341.26434,1334.791504,1334.791504],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4853273","event_id":"1065849","slug":"will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-between-5-and-15-on-december-31-2026","question":"Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?","group_item_title":"5–15%","description":"This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nThe general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nItem specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).\n\nOnly tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.55,0.45],"probability":0.55,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-22T20:05:43Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":763.545264,"volume_24hr":450.911234,"prob_24h_change":0.24000000000000005,"volume_24h_change":228.760062,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.882257461547852,"normalized_volume":12.932733535766602,"liquidity":584.3888,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","China"],"updated_at":"2026-09-25T21:03:31.911084Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-25T21:03:31.911084Z","added_at":"2026-09-22T20:06:24.396118Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026/will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-between-5-and-15-on-december-31-2026","event_title":"U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.31,0.305,0.305,0.325,0.34,0.34,0.335,0.335,0.355,0.35,0.35,0.415,0.365,0.33,0.345,0.435,0.36,0.42,0.335,0.455,0.455,0.49,0.515,0.545,0.545,0.545,0.545,0.545,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4853272","event_id":"1065849","slug":"will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-less-than-5-on-december-31-2026","question":"Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31?","group_item_title":"<5%","description":"This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nThe general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nItem specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).\n\nOnly tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.145,0.855],"probability":0.145,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-22T20:05:43Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":668.2166930000001,"volume_24hr":424.3,"prob_24h_change":-0.04500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":362.435286,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.607995986938477,"normalized_volume":12.419116973876953,"liquidity":9161.9632,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","China"],"updated_at":"2026-09-25T20:40:41.628683Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-25T20:40:41.628683Z","added_at":"2026-09-22T20:06:24.396118Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026/will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-less-than-5-on-december-31-2026","event_title":"U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.19,0.195,0.205,0.205,0.205,0.205,0.205,0.205,0.205,0.205,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4853274","event_id":"1065849","slug":"will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-between-15-and-25-on-december-31-2026","question":"Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31?","group_item_title":"15–25%","description":"This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nThe general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nItem specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).\n\nOnly tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.145,0.855],"probability":0.145,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-22T20:05:43Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":239.284749,"volume_24hr":191.977056,"prob_24h_change":0.004999999999999977,"volume_24h_change":164.669363,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.286751747131348,"normalized_volume":8.816546440124512,"liquidity":8484.2234,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","China"],"updated_at":"2026-09-25T20:40:41.628683Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-25T20:40:41.628683Z","added_at":"2026-09-22T20:06:24.396118Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026/will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-between-15-and-25-on-december-31-2026","event_title":"U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.14,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.205,0.24,0.135,0.18,0.34,0.245,0.24,0.365,0.255,0.25,0.155,0.235,0.185,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.175,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.145]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4853275","event_id":"1065849","slug":"will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-between-25-and-35-on-december-31-2026","question":"Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on December 31?","group_item_title":"25–35%","description":"This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nThe general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nItem specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).\n\nOnly tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-22T20:05:43Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":223.47321400000004,"volume_24hr":150.113214,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":96.753214,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.352951049804688,"normalized_volume":8.598954200744629,"liquidity":1216.85,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","China"],"updated_at":"2026-09-25T21:03:31.911084Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-25T21:03:31.911084Z","added_at":"2026-09-22T20:06:24.396118Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026/will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-between-25-and-35-on-december-31-2026","event_title":"U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.14,0.14,0.135,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.105,0.115,0.125,0.115,0.11,0.1,0.135,0.14,0.135]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4853276","event_id":"1065849","slug":"will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-35-or-greater-on-december-31-2026","question":"Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on December 31?","group_item_title":"35%+","description":"This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nThe general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nItem specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).\n\nOnly tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-EmgI2JXL5RCU.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.046,0.954],"probability":0.046,"spread":0.086,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-22T20:05:43Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":634.2299,"volume_24hr":113.23,"prob_24h_change":0.039,"volume_24h_change":-262.7699,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.33895492553711,"normalized_volume":12.220932960510254,"liquidity":1004.88824,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","China"],"updated_at":"2026-09-25T21:03:31.911084Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-25T21:03:31.911084Z","added_at":"2026-09-22T20:06:24.396118Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026/will-the-us-tariff-rate-on-china-be-35-or-greater-on-december-31-2026","event_title":"U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.007,0.0075,0.0065,0.0075,0.0065,0.0075,0.008,0.008,0.007,0.031,0.047,0.007,0.0305,0.0295,0.0515,0.0515,0.0465]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1065849","as_of":"2026-09-25T21:26:09.269831Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?\" — top market at 55% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}