{"source":"polymarket","id":"107726","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-17T20:25:43.742210Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11497709.69202978,"volume_24hr":33506.72881,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.65863037109375,"normalized_volume":55.837860107421875,"liquidity":315965.79784,"open_interest":1619316.439614,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0045,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7171.390132000019,"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:51:59.933032Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:51:59.933032Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026","chart_24h":[26529.583335999974,27082.08944399998,28756.40671999998,26321.53716299999,25058.76250099999,25048.96005099999,25057.18571099999,25279.989683999993,29527.60374199999,32501.255990999987,32502.631492999986,32730.011009999987,32730.011009999987,32705.36844299999,32567.53309999999,32575.323099999994,33338.960446,36048.430446,34203.260446,30340.561530000014,28878.173944,28849.548431000014,27940.533814000013,27915.732123000013,27923.455253000015,27893.83320900001,28057.47630600001,27984.95771600001,26354.65840000001,22959.256398999994,33887.985515,33525.769372999996,33512.49355099999,35661.40684199999],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"956590","event_id":"107726","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026","question":"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0045,0.9955],"probability":0.0045,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-17T20:25:43.742210Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11497709.69202978,"volume_24hr":33506.72881,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":7171.390132000019,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.547698974609375,"normalized_volume":73.26464080810547,"liquidity":316588.54681,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:54:57.283675Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:00.382505Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026","event_title":"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045,0.0045]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/107726","as_of":"2026-06-21T12:02:33.754649Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?\" — top market at 0% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}