{"source":"polymarket","id":"1078065","ticker":"biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25","slug":"biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25","title":"What will the biggest earthquake be on September 25, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on September 25, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.\n\nBrackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on September 25, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.\n\nMagnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.\n\nIf USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.\n\nIf the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.\n\nIf no earthquake data for September 25, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026, this market will resolve to the \"Under 5.3\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-25T04:07:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-26T18:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4255.15,"volume_24hr":4255.15,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.83489418029785,"normalized_volume":15.872344017028809,"liquidity":7925.50539,"open_interest":2577.9625,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"103038","slug":"earthquakes","label":"Earthquakes"},{"id":"102169","slug":"hide-from-new","label":"Hide From New"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"6.1 or more","top_outcome_probability":0.9995,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.49950000000000006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1220.14,"updated_at":"2026-09-26T16:57:01.619718Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-26T16:57:01.619718Z","added_at":"2026-09-25T04:19:43.770359Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,880.0,880.0,880.0,880.0,895.14,895.14,895.14,895.14,895.14,895.14,895.14,895.14,895.14,895.14,895.14,895.14,895.14,2340.15,2340.15,4165.15,4255.15,4255.15],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"4937150","event_id":"1078065","slug":"biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-6-1-plus","question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 6.1 or more?","group_item_title":"6.1 or more","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on September 25, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.\n\nBrackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on September 25, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.\n\nMagnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.\n\nIf USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.\n\nIf the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.\n\nIf no earthquake data for September 25, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026, this market will resolve to the \"Under 5.3\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.9995,0.0005],"probability":0.9995,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-25T04:07:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-26T18:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1220.1399999999999,"volume_24hr":1220.14,"prob_24h_change":0.49950000000000006,"volume_24h_change":1220.14,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.84122085571289,"normalized_volume":14.821318626403809,"liquidity":1234.78694,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-26T15:45:27.853676Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-26T15:45:27.853676Z","added_at":"2026-09-25T04:19:43.796819Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-6-1-plus","event_title":"What will the biggest earthquake be on September 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.675,0.675,0.68,0.76,0.75,0.76,0.944,0.9445,0.982,0.9815,0.982,0.989,0.99,0.9995]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4937143","event_id":"1078065","slug":"biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-3-to-5-4","question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?","group_item_title":"5.3 to 5.4","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on September 25, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.\n\nBrackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on September 25, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.\n\nMagnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.\n\nIf USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.\n\nIf the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.\n\nIf no earthquake data for September 25, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026, this market will resolve to the \"Under 5.3\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.034,0.966],"probability":0.034,"spread":0.068,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-25T04:07:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-26T18:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":295.0,"volume_24hr":295.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.46099999999999997,"volume_24h_change":285.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.640640258789062,"normalized_volume":9.50008773803711,"liquidity":1070.28478,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-26T16:57:02.253652Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-26T16:57:02.253652Z","added_at":"2026-09-25T04:19:43.796819Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-3-to-5-4","event_title":"What will the biggest earthquake be on September 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.25,0.24,0.233,0.2395,0.214,0.2335,0.24,0.227,0.035,0.034,0.0325,0.034,0.0345,0.0335]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4937145","event_id":"1078065","slug":"biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-5-to-5-6","question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?","group_item_title":"5.5 to 5.6","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on September 25, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.\n\nBrackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on September 25, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.\n\nMagnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.\n\nIf USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.\n\nIf the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.\n\nIf no earthquake data for September 25, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026, this market will resolve to the \"Under 5.3\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0265,0.9735],"probability":0.0265,"spread":0.053,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-25T04:07:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-26T18:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":295.0,"volume_24hr":295.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.46849999999999997,"volume_24h_change":285.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.640640258789062,"normalized_volume":9.50008773803711,"liquidity":1295.88586,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-26T14:35:00.331212Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-26T14:35:00.331212Z","added_at":"2026-09-25T04:19:43.796819Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-5-to-5-6","event_title":"What will the biggest earthquake be on September 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.239,0.2265,0.2335,0.24,0.245,0.2285,0.035,0.0265,0.026,0.0265]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4937141","event_id":"1078065","slug":"biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-under-5-3","question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be under 5.3?","group_item_title":"Under 5.3","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on September 25, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.\n\nBrackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on September 25, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.\n\nMagnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.\n\nIf USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.\n\nIf the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.\n\nIf no earthquake data for September 25, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026, this market will resolve to the \"Under 5.3\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0015,0.9985],"probability":0.0015,"spread":0.003,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-25T04:07:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-26T18:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1720.01,"volume_24hr":1720.01,"prob_24h_change":-0.4985,"volume_24h_change":1720.01,"normalized_vol_24hr":25.099838256835938,"normalized_volume":16.286901473999023,"liquidity":2386.35989,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-26T15:45:27.853676Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-26T15:45:27.853676Z","added_at":"2026-09-25T04:19:43.796819Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-under-5-3","event_title":"What will the biggest earthquake be on September 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.26,0.5,0.495,0.245,0.245,0.24,0.233,0.2165,0.239,0.2385,0.2345,0.2325,0.024,0.024,0.0055,0.002,0.0015]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4937148","event_id":"1078065","slug":"biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-9-to-6-0","question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?","group_item_title":"5.9 to 6.0","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on September 25, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.\n\nBrackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on September 25, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.\n\nMagnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.\n\nIf USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.\n\nIf the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.\n\nIf no earthquake data for September 25, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026, this market will resolve to the \"Under 5.3\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":0.002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-25T04:07:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-26T18:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":145.0,"volume_24hr":145.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.079,"volume_24h_change":145.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.229701042175293,"normalized_volume":7.286780834197998,"liquidity":1124.29415,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-26T16:57:02.253652Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-26T16:57:02.253652Z","added_at":"2026-09-25T04:19:43.796819Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-9-to-6-0","event_title":"What will the biggest earthquake be on September 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.26,0.5,0.9,0.5,0.495,0.245,0.24,0.243,0.2205,0.234,0.239,0.2335,0.2265,0.245,0.0225,0.001,0.0005]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"4937146","event_id":"1078065","slug":"biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-7-to-5-8","question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?","group_item_title":"5.7 to 5.8","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on September 25, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.\n\nBrackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on September 25, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.\n\nMagnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.\n\nIf USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.\n\nIf the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.\n\nIf no earthquake data for September 25, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on September 26, 2026, this market will resolve to the \"Under 5.3\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0005,0.9995],"probability":0.0005,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-25T04:07:17Z","end_date":"2026-09-26T18:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":580.0,"volume_24hr":580.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.4945,"volume_24h_change":570.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.31654167175293,"normalized_volume":11.885323524475098,"liquidity":1735.23379,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-26T14:57:09.445757Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-26T14:57:09.445757Z","added_at":"2026-09-25T04:19:43.796819Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-7-to-5-8","event_title":"What will the biggest earthquake be on September 25, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.245,0.24,0.232,0.221,0.2335,0.2195,0.245,0.2335,0.245,0.014,0.0005]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1078065","as_of":"2026-09-26T17:19:34.941062Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"What will the biggest earthquake be on September 25, 2026?\" — top market at 0% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}