{"source":"polymarket","id":"1099083","ticker":"metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437","slug":"metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437","title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2428.0769480000004,"volume_24hr":2428.076948,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.921791076660156,"normalized_volume":13.812341690063477,"liquidity":4489.85993,"open_interest":605.1240819999999,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"101647","slug":"meta","label":"Meta"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"106188","slug":"watermelon","label":"Watermelon"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No release by October 31","top_outcome_probability":0.31,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.175,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":212.07,"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:05.622973Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:05.622973Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.853901Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,1036.094725,1671.094725,1671.094725,1671.094725,2381.476948,2386.476948,2388.076948,2388.076948],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087574","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-there-be-no-meta-watermelon-model-release-by-october-31-2026","question":"Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"No release by October 31","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.31,0.69],"probability":0.31,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":212.07,"volume_24hr":212.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.175,"volume_24h_change":212.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.200597763061523,"normalized_volume":8.434131622314453,"liquidity":112.2099,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-there-be-no-meta-watermelon-model-release-by-october-31-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.485,0.135,0.145,0.17,0.155,0.22,0.26,0.255,0.21]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087573","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-31-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.215,0.785],"probability":0.215,"spread":0.35,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.225,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":112.0188,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-31-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.13,0.165,0.165,0.11,0.42,0.23,0.225,0.22]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087559","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-17-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 17, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 17","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":0.36,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-17T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.25,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":107.4085,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-17-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.24,0.12,0.04,0.235,0.04]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087549","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-7-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 7, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 7","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.185,0.815],"probability":0.185,"spread":0.35,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-07T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.255,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":102.8684,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-7-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.14,0.13,0.115,0.135,0.365,0.185,0.405,0.04,0.04]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087562","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-20-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 20, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 20","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.18,0.82],"probability":0.18,"spread":0.2,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-20T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.26,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":124.739,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-20-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.12,0.19,0.045,0.38,0.265,0.26,0.275,0.23]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087572","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-30-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 30","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.17,0.83],"probability":0.17,"spread":0.24,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.27,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":116.7353,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-30-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.125,0.175,0.155,0.445,0.27,0.265,0.235]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087556","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-14-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 14, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 14","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.145,0.855],"probability":0.145,"spread":0.27,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-14T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96.07000000000002,"volume_24hr":96.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.29500000000000004,"volume_24h_change":96.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.15667724609375,"normalized_volume":6.142037868499756,"liquidity":91.6672,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-14-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.14,0.235,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.425,0.24,0.24,0.145]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087558","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-16-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 16, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 16","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.14,0.86],"probability":0.14,"spread":0.26,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-16T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.3,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":112.9788,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-16-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.14,0.13,0.165,0.195,0.105,0.1,0.04,0.265,0.04]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087565","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-23-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 23, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 23","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1355,0.8645],"probability":0.1355,"spread":0.267,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-23T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.3045,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":86.60266,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-23-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.115,0.375,0.04,0.36,0.3145,0.0365,0.278,0.035]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087547","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-5-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 5, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 5","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.19,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-05T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":60.67,"volume_24hr":60.67,"prob_24h_change":-0.315,"volume_24h_change":60.67,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.6194562911987305,"normalized_volume":4.984498977661133,"liquidity":197.6864,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-5-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.255,0.12,0.325,0.04,0.38,0.045,0.21,0.15]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087564","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-22-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 22, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 22","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-22T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.315,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":155.8325,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-22-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.105,0.12,0.125]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087563","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-21-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 21, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 21","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.115,0.885],"probability":0.115,"spread":0.19,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-21T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96.07000000000002,"volume_24hr":96.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.325,"volume_24h_change":96.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.15667724609375,"normalized_volume":6.142037868499756,"liquidity":121.1402,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-21-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.175,0.255,0.11,0.1,0.25,0.215,0.225]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087570","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-28-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 28, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 28","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.115,0.885],"probability":0.115,"spread":0.15,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-28T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":109.292223,"volume_24hr":109.292223,"prob_24h_change":-0.325,"volume_24h_change":109.292223,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.618339538574219,"normalized_volume":6.489672660827637,"liquidity":137.573,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-28-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.22]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087550","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-8-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 8, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 8","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1095,0.8905],"probability":0.1095,"spread":0.199,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.3305,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":105.86852,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-8-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.145,0.425,0.04,0.045,0.04]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087555","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-13-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 13, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 13","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.109,0.891],"probability":0.109,"spread":0.198,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-13T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.331,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":121.23791,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-13-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.26,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.155,0.15,0.275,0.04,0.035]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087568","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-26-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 26, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 26","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.107,0.893],"probability":0.107,"spread":0.21,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.333,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":108.53462,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-26-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.1,0.355,0.04,0.35,0.036,0.0355,0.279,0.035]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087551","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-9-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 9, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 9","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.105,0.895],"probability":0.105,"spread":0.19,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":55.63,"volume_24hr":55.63,"prob_24h_change":-0.335,"volume_24h_change":55.63,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.348443984985352,"normalized_volume":4.78042459487915,"liquidity":508.8834,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-9-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.04,0.385,0.165,0.17,0.14]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087566","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-24-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 24, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 24","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.105,0.895],"probability":0.105,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-24T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.335,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":113.3709,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-24-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.225,0.285,0.28,0.265,0.15,0.265]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087569","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-27-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 27","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.099,0.901],"probability":0.099,"spread":0.194,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-27T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.34099999999999997,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":106.35252,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-27-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.12,0.375,0.04,0.19,0.4305,0.0355,0.28,0.035]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087552","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-10-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 10, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 10","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-10T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.36,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":229.3663,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-10-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.075,0.08,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087553","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-11-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 11, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 11","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.06,0.94],"probability":0.06,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-11T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.38,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":228.8775,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-11-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.055,0.055,0.06,0.045,0.06]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087545","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-3-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 3, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 3","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0495,0.9505],"probability":0.0495,"spread":0.079,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-03T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.3905,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":179.88691,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-3-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.05,0.045,0.045,0.04,0.035,0.05,0.05]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087543","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-or-prior-to-october-1-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"On or prior to October 1","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.045,0.955],"probability":0.045,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":83.27832500000001,"volume_24hr":83.278325,"prob_24h_change":-0.455,"volume_24h_change":83.278325,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.660635948181152,"normalized_volume":5.768514633178711,"liquidity":49.7964,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-or-prior-to-october-1-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.13,0.12,0.145,0.125,0.085,0.075,0.1,0.125,0.1]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087557","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-15-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 15","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.045,0.955],"probability":0.045,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":86.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":86.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.395,"volume_24h_change":86.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.773650169372559,"normalized_volume":5.8536152839660645,"liquidity":114.7392,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-15-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.14,0.12,0.165,0.12,0.235,0.14,0.045,0.13,0.065]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087544","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-2-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 2, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 2","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0405,0.9595],"probability":0.0405,"spread":0.059,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-02T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.3995,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":147.5111,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-2-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.255,0.12,0.12,0.045,0.27,0.2,0.125,0.155,0.135]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087548","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-6-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 6, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 6","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-06T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.4,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":107.3158,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-6-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.155,0.26,0.255,0.28,0.04,0.04]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087554","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-12-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 12, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 12","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-12T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.4,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":106.85861,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-12-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.175,0.425,0.25,0.04,0.04]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087571","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-29-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 29, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 29","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-29T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.405,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":114.1884,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-29-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.445,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.225,0.14,0.385,0.28,0.04,0.215]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087560","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-18-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 18, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 18","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0355,0.9645],"probability":0.0355,"spread":0.067,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-18T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.4045,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":155.83757,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-18-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.12,0.375,0.045,0.355,0.3085,0.036,0.339,0.2155]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087567","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-25-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 25, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 25","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.035,0.965],"probability":0.035,"spread":0.068,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-25T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.07000000000001,"volume_24hr":66.07,"prob_24h_change":-0.405,"volume_24h_change":66.07,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.89180850982666,"normalized_volume":5.189581871032715,"liquidity":108.0407,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-25-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.12,0.2,0.04,0.435,0.3885,0.0365,0.313,0.2145]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087546","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-4-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 4, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 4","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.97],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":107.71640000000001,"volume_24hr":107.7164,"prob_24h_change":-0.41000000000000003,"volume_24h_change":107.7164,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.565679550170898,"normalized_volume":6.450018882751465,"liquidity":191.96357,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T01:12:27.508634Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T01:12:27.508634Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-4-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.055,0.046,0.0465,0.0425,0.055,0.03]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5087561","event_id":"1099083","slug":"will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-19-2026","question":"Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 19, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 19","description":"On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap \"including bigger models\" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename \"Watermelon.\"\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's \"Watermelon\" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Watermelon\" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed \"Watermelon,\" regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt-rtQu3QVkx9Dx.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.97],"probability":0.03,"spread":0.056,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T18:37:54Z","end_date":"2026-10-19T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":67.67,"volume_24hr":67.67,"prob_24h_change":-0.41000000000000003,"volume_24h_change":67.67,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.969290256500244,"normalized_volume":5.247926235198975,"liquidity":118.68874,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-29T02:46:06.691543Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T18:43:40.870723Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-released-onptptpt-20260928142913437/will-metas-watermelon-model-be-released-on-october-19-2026","event_title":"Meta's Watermelon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.135,0.12,0.19,0.04,0.43,0.036,0.035,0.035,0.2255]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1099083","as_of":"2026-09-29T03:12:18.216316Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Meta's Watermelon released on...?\" — top market at 31% probability across 32 outcomes","source_url":null}}