{"source":"polymarket","id":"1099863","ticker":"closer-senate-race-montana-or-new-jersey","slug":"closer-senate-race-montana-or-new-jersey","title":"Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?","description":"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Montana\" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Montana has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Jersey Senate election.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"New Jersey\" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Jersey has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Montana Senate election.\n\nIf both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nFor elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. \n\nIn the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/montana-senate-is-closer-than-new-jersey-senate-bXXP9OGvmBSw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/montana-senate-is-closer-than-new-jersey-senate-bXXP9OGvmBSw.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T20:16:58Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":163.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.911423683166504,"liquidity":281.5647,"open_interest":40.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100199","slug":"senate-elections","label":"Senate"},{"id":"102289","slug":"midterms","label":"Midterms"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"104027","slug":"montana-midterm","label":"Montana Midterm"},{"id":"104030","slug":"new-jersey-midterm","label":"New Jersey Midterm"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.61,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-02T09:51:52.685983Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T09:51:52.685983Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T20:30:18.727705Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/closer-senate-race-montana-or-new-jersey","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5091427","event_id":"1099863","slug":"closer-senate-race-montana-or-new-jersey","question":"Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Montana\" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Montana has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Jersey Senate election.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"New Jersey\" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Jersey has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Montana Senate election.\n\nIf both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nFor elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. \n\nIn the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/montana-senate-is-closer-than-new-jersey-senate-bXXP9OGvmBSw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/montana-senate-is-closer-than-new-jersey-senate-bXXP9OGvmBSw.jpg","outcomes":["Montana","New Jersey"],"outcome_prices":[0.61,0.39],"probability":0.61,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T20:16:58Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":163.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-1.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.630724906921387,"liquidity":281.5647,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T06:39:26.770303Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T06:39:26.770303Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T20:30:19.547047Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/closer-senate-race-montana-or-new-jersey/closer-senate-race-montana-or-new-jersey","event_title":"Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?","chart_24h":[0.61,0.605,0.61,0.615,0.61,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1099863","as_of":"2026-10-02T10:02:31.895976Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey?\" — top market at 61% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}