{"source":"polymarket","id":"1099873","ticker":"spacex-starship-flight-test-15","slug":"spacex-starship-flight-test-15","title":"SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?","description":"This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-starship-flight-test-10-KJ2wEPdcMh5k.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/spacex-starship-flight-test-10-KJ2wEPdcMh5k.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T20:22:08Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5062.01467,"volume_24hr":2193.2555580000003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.120738983154297,"normalized_volume":16.53738784790039,"liquidity":2028.3675,"open_interest":2424.8070460000004,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"63","slug":"spacex","label":"SpaceX"},{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 30, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.775,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-155.64794900000004,"updated_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:07.110342Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:07.110342Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T20:30:18.727705Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15","chart_24h":[2580.24053,2616.756714,2616.756714,2675.867826,2589.937826,2589.937826,2914.087826,3064.087826,3064.087826,3064.087826,3220.660892,3251.190892,3230.3408919999997,3228.540892,3223.540892,3243.532272,2888.311261,2803.3212609999996,2721.514525,2888.044525,2750.281116,2687.70009,3020.60009,2714.6808859999996,2500.475558,2500.475558,2500.475558,2500.475558,2193.2555580000003],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5091438","event_id":"1099873","slug":"will-spacex-starship-flight-test-15-launch-by-november-30","question":"Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 30, 2026","description":"If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.775,0.225],"probability":0.775,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T20:22:08Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1138.963052,"volume_24hr":660.28,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":-155.64794900000004,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.98783302307129,"normalized_volume":14.535816192626953,"liquidity":935.4361,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:09.149488Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:09.149488Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T20:30:19.547047Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15/will-spacex-starship-flight-test-15-launch-by-november-30","event_title":"SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?","chart_24h":[0.785,0.785,0.765,0.765,0.765,0.765,0.765,0.765,0.765,0.765,0.765,0.78,0.775,0.785,0.785,0.78,0.775,0.775,0.775]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5091440","event_id":"1099873","slug":"will-the-chopsticks-catch-spacex-starship-flight-test-15-superheavy-booster","question":"Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?","group_item_title":"Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.\n\nThis market pertains to the 15th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 15th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 15th launch, and this market will stay open until the 15th launch has occurred. If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.45,0.55],"probability":0.45,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T20:22:08Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1026.023341,"volume_24hr":189.03,"prob_24h_change":0.135,"volume_24h_change":-367.963341,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.3959379196167,"normalized_volume":14.108098030090332,"liquidity":266.4151,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:09.149488Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:09.149488Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T20:30:19.547047Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15/will-the-chopsticks-catch-spacex-starship-flight-test-15-superheavy-booster","event_title":"SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?","chart_24h":[0.315,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.335,0.335,0.335,0.335,0.335,0.335,0.335,0.365,0.455,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.45]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5091439","event_id":"1099873","slug":"will-spacex-starship-flight-test-15-superheavy-pop","question":"Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?","group_item_title":"Super Heavy booster explodes?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).\n\nIf the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.31,0.69],"probability":0.31,"spread":0.34,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T20:22:08Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":246.996483,"volume_24hr":40.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.5,"volume_24h_change":-146.996483,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.208845138549805,"normalized_volume":8.918452262878418,"liquidity":212.0414,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:09.149488Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:09.149488Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T20:30:19.547047Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15/will-spacex-starship-flight-test-15-superheavy-pop","event_title":"SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?","chart_24h":[0.81,0.765,0.765,0.8,0.805,0.715,0.715,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.61,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.265,0.255,0.3,0.31]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5091437","event_id":"1099873","slug":"will-spacex-starship-flight-test-15-launch-by-october-31","question":"Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31, 2026","description":"If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.3,0.7],"probability":0.3,"spread":0.14,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T20:22:08Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":439.369759,"volume_24hr":178.99138,"prob_24h_change":-0.195,"volume_24h_change":-61.386999,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.14083480834961,"normalized_volume":10.872827529907227,"liquidity":315.483,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:09.149488Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:09.149488Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T20:30:19.547047Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15/will-spacex-starship-flight-test-15-launch-by-october-31","event_title":"SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.495,0.495,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.265,0.565,0.575,0.565,0.565,0.565,0.415,0.455,0.4,0.445,0.355,0.365,0.355,0.48,0.39,0.385,0.38,0.38,0.375,0.375,0.3]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5091441","event_id":"1099873","slug":"will-the-chopsticks-catch-spacex-starship-flight-test-15-starship","question":"Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?","group_item_title":"Chopsticks catch Starship?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Starship upper stage for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.\n\nThis market pertains to the 15th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 15th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 15th launch, and this market will stay open until the 15th launch has occurred. If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.16,0.84],"probability":0.16,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-28T20:22:08Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2210.662035,"volume_24hr":1124.9541780000002,"prob_24h_change":-0.155,"volume_24h_change":345.00980000000015,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.227527618408203,"normalized_volume":17.40198516845703,"liquidity":339.2919,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:09.149488Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T02:38:09.149488Z","added_at":"2026-09-28T20:30:19.547047Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15/will-the-chopsticks-catch-spacex-starship-flight-test-15-starship","event_title":"SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?","chart_24h":[0.315,0.27,0.295,0.39,0.335,0.325,0.185,0.185,0.22,0.205,0.17,0.19,0.165,0.14,0.155,0.15,0.155,0.165,0.175,0.15,0.155,0.155,0.16,0.16,0.145,0.155,0.16,0.16]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1099873","as_of":"2026-10-01T02:56:46.453266Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?\" — top market at 16% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}